Big Storm By Weeks End

For a time this month, the temperatures were quite warm and the humidity was oppressive. However, the tides have turned and the weather pattern turned MUCH cooler with added storminess allowing more rain to fall. Remember, all of April, only 0.57" of rain fell at Easterwood Airport. So far in the early part of May, 0.67" fell with a whole lot more to come this weekend. Note: Around Hearne and even portions of southern Grimes County, over 2.00" of rain has been reported this month.

Today and early tomorrow will be out "break" before another significant rain event strikes the Brazos Valley. Over the last few days, I have keep a sharp eye on a piece of upper level energy that has been swirling around the Desert Southwest and the northwest corner of Mexico.

The above map displays current spin at the 500 millibar level (18,000 feet above the surface). Notice the enclosed area with yellow contours around northwest Mexico and southern Arizona. That energy will be the focus for developing widespread rain and thunderstorms all across Texas beginning tonight and lasting though late Saturday.

By Thursday evening, the area with the most dynamic spin and lift (marked with the X in west Texas) will take all the moisture in the low level and rise it rapidly into the atmosphere. This will spawn intense downpours from El Paso to San Antonio and eventually here in the Brazos Valley. The track of this upper level energy is important because where this move will dictate where the highest rates of precipitation will fall. If this energy moves east and towards the Brazos Valley, we will get hit hard. On the other hand, if the energy moves well north or well south of us, we will still see rain, but not as much.

At the moment, the way the computer models are lining up, we should have at least 1.00" of rain area wide with isolated locations receiving 2"-3".

Due to the intensity of rainfall expected, the National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued a Flash Flood Watch for areas just to our southwest for Thursday though Friday.

This type of watch is for quick flooding due to rainfall intensity as opposed to a long duration rain event that could last for days and create week long flooding. Due to the dynamics of the upper level energy, it will rain so hard at times, you may not even be able to see several feet in front of you.

A Flash Flood Watch has not been posted for our area yet, but I would not be surprised if the NWS extends this area for us and especially towards Houston.

If you are curious, here is a look at what one of the computer models predicts for total rainfall from Thursday night to Saturday afternoon.

Its a lot of rain with a majority of this falling Friday. As far as severe weather, I cant foresee much. There will be gusty winds at times, lightning and maybe an isolated weak tornado, but nothing significant. The main story for us will be rainfall and possible flooding.

Again, the timing will go like this. Several showers breakout late Thursday and becoming more numerous by Friday. Friday will be the main show with periods of very heavy rain tapering to light showers early Saturday. Sunday, we are dry.

The timing and rainfall amounts are subject to change, but that's how it looks at the moment.