Thursday, December 27, 2012

Looks More Like London England

Old chap, today was perfect for an afternoon tea and some crumpets. Quite a chilly, drizzly day that only the Queen of England would enjoy. Yes, the weather outside had an appearance of London, England, or maybe Seattle, Washington.

Despite the sunny start, low clouds and drizzle engulfed the Brazos Valley quickly this afternoon. A warm front off the Gulf of Mexico slowly lifted north and helped to create a process called "overrunning." Typically, these type of events occur with mid-latitude cyclones, but can occur on a much smaller scale as well. To simply put it, warm air is moving on top of colder air at the surface, hence, overrunning.

Early this morning, a push of air from the southeast began to advance behind a warm front off the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a shallow layer of colder air was in place ahead of the front. Air behind the front is warmer with additional moisture. The exact opposite is true ahead of the front, where the air at the surface is much cooler and drier. What you need to know here is that drier, cooler air has a higher density than air that is warm and moist. In other words, air that has a higher density is essentially "heavier." The "heavier" more dense air will move when it wants to and will not let less dense air push it around. Therefore, instead of pushing the colder air out of the way, the only place for warmer (less dense) air to go, is over the colder air, that stays put at the low levels.

Take a look at this phenomenon from the side. You can clearly see that the warmer air rises over the colder, more dense air. As air rises, it tends to cool, become saturated and generates cloud cover. In our situation, the depth of cold air is so shallow, that precipitation remained light in the form of drizzle and showers. This also answers why its been so chilly today because the cold air did not want to move. However, this type of event is quite tricky to track, especially on doppler radar. Satellite pictures are perfect, but not so much when the radar is superimposed on top. 
 
The picture on the right displays what Max Storm saw this afternoon. Plenty of clouds, but radar echos are not returning, illustrating any precipitation. As noted earlier in this blog entry, our event is shallow. Cloud cover is close to the ground, and therefore precipitation that forms and falls is close to the ground as well. When an event sets up like this, it is almost impossible for doppler radars to pick up precipitation. Two key reasons for this is due to how dopplers work. One, you need to factor in that when a beam from the doppler radar goes out to find targets (precipitation, bugs, birds....etc.) the radar beam shoots out at an angle. Plus, the curvature of the Earth comes into play as well. The farther an object is from the radar site, the lower chance that the radar will pick up on it, especially if the target is close to the ground.
 
The illustration on the left should help you understand the two issues with curvature and angle. Note how the radar beam is shot at an angle, but how the Earth's curvature comes into play. A thunderstorm close to the radar has no problem, but the storm farther away from the radar cannot be picked up. Therefore, the best way to know about any shallow precipitation are from first hand accounts, weather watchers and official weather reporting sites, such as airports. Nonetheless, the doppler radar is one of the best tools that a meteorologist has. Sometimes, we need to do an little extra digging to understand what exactly is going on.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.


Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Christmas Tornadoes

The National Weather Service completed their survey of the tornado damage in Houston County from the Christmas Day storms. They found one as a minimal EF-0 tornado, but the second a powerful EF-3. The following is an illustration of the location of the twisters, plus the assessment from the National Weather Service.


...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/15/12 TORNADO EVENT...

.SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY TORNADO # 1...

RATING:                 EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    150 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  7.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   300 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             DEC 25 2012
START TIME:             9:25 AM CST
START LOCATION:         5 WSW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX
START LAT/LON:          31.1674/ -95.3132

END DATE:               DEC 25 2012
END TIME:               9:35 AM CST
END LOCATION:           2 N PENNINGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
END_LAT/LON:            31.2290 -92.2356

SURVEY SUMMARY: WORST OF THE DAMAGE WAS ALONG HIGHWAY 287 A MILE
NORTH OF PENNINGTON WHERE A FEED STORE AND RESTAURANT WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH DEBRIS SCATTERED IN FIELD TO THE EAST.
WITNESSES OBSERVED A WIDE DARK CLOUD MOVING ACROSS THE PATH
SCATTERING DEBRIS. SEVERAL HOMES AND TRAILERS WERE SEVERELY
DAMAGED ALONG THE PATH...MOSTLY EF-1 AND EF-2 DAMAGE...BUT
THERE WERE NO SERIOUS INJURIES.

.TORNADO # 2...

START DATE:             DEC 25 2012
START TIME:             9:40 AM CST
START LOCATION:         1 NNW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX

END DATE:               DEC 25 2012
END TIME:               9:41 AM CST
END LOCATION:           1 NNW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    75 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   30 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0



BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OBSERVED BY POLICE OFFICER NEAR SCENE OF
EARLIER TOUCHDOWN ALONG ROUTE 287. SOME DEBRIS LOFTED BUT
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH*

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Christmas Severe Weather Breakdown

Could you believe it, but Christmas is here!!!! Santa has already been working hard this Christmas Eve delivering presents to many all across the world and eventually the big guy in the bright red suit will make and appearance here. Rudolph will have no trouble guiding good ole St Nick though the weather in the Brazos Valley. However, once we turn the calendar to Christmas Day, our potential for turbulent weather goes up and some of these storms will reach severe levels.

As of this evening, the main engine of low pressure that will drive these storms continues to sit over the Colorado Rockies. Despite the length of distance this low needs to make in order to get here, its a fairly quick mover. It will be such a swift mover that we will begin to feel some effects around 3am tomorrow (Christmas Day) morning. Additionally, note how the center of low pressure is attached to a warm front. In fact, this was the cold front that moved though our area last night. Now, its going to lift back north as a warm front that will be one of the key triggers to firing off strong to severe thunderstorms.

Before we get into the nitty gritty, the Storm Prediciton Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma believes that there is a heightened potential for severe weather here overnight. Therefore, our entire viewing area has a "slight risk" of severe weather overnight. Basically, the SPC uses this terminology to give awareness that the weather for a certain area has the potential to be rough. Not only will the Brazos Valley feel the effects, but the severe threat extends in to Louisiana, Mississippi, and even Alabama too.

Since we have the ground work laid out for you, lets talk about the specifics in terms of timing and impacts. Now, the center of low pressure currently over the Rockies will slide down into central Texas overnight. At the same time, a warm front that is currently to our south will begin to lift north. Furthermore, instability will take place and thunderstorms will initiate.


This first step will occur between 3am-6am early Christmas Day. Thunderstorms that breakout in this timing window will be isolated, but are not limited to producing strong gust winds, heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning. Several of these storms will carry severe characteristics, but it wont be widespread.

Here is a look at how one computer model illustrates the early thunderstorm activity.



Here is the kicker, after 6am, the warm front will completely pass though the Brazos Valley and heighten the potential for damaging storms from 6am - 10am. If this occurs, we will be in an area between the warm and cold front, known as the "warm sector". Not only does this zone create stronger storms, but the potential for tornadic development. Additionally, a line will develop ahead of the cold front that could generate winds above 60mph at times.

 
 

Again, if this occurs, our threat for tornadoes goes up, but is not guaranteed. However, if the warm front stays to our south, thunderstorms will still be strong, but the threat for tornadoes shrinks significantly. Nonetheless, this will be a situation that will be a waiting game to see the exact track of each piece of the puzzle.

In the end, the entire area will receive a fair amount of rainfall, which is much needed.


In some of the stronger storms, a few locations could pick up over 2 inches of rainfall.

So here is the breakdown for you:

Timing: 3am - 10am.

Impact: Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and a potential for isolated tornadoes.

But don't fear, I will make sure to keep you informed on Facebook, Twitter, and on-air if we need to break into programming. KAGS-HD is committed to keep you in the loop before, during and after the storm.

Finally, once the cold front moves passed us, it will turn sharply colder and windier.

Be safe and have a Merry Christmas! Tonight will be a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radios, or download the KAGS-HD Weather app that will alert you if severe weather strikes.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

An Arctic Blast....Then Wintry Weather?

Tis' the season to be jolly with all the major holidays jam packed in a three week period. Also, tis' the season for traveling. If the weather does not cooperate, then there is going to be some trouble. Paying attention to the weather forecast this holiday season will be crutial all across the country. Recently, a dull, tranquil pattern has turned more active with severe thunderstorms, and even blankets of snow. This trend does not seem like its going to stop anytime soon before 2012 comes to a close.

Two storms will take shape over the next week or so and cause travel troubles for many locations. Right now, the first storm will be an easy read, but the second one that comes down the pike could be interesting and tough to grasp at this time.

Presently, a strengthening low-pressure center sits over the Rockies and is prepared to move into the heart of the country with a line of thunderstorms and huge swath of snow. A combination of mid-level energy, surface temperature differences, and mixing a strong jet stream aloft will aid the power of this currently benign storm.

From the latest computer guidance, the track of this storm should take the center of low pressure though southern Colorado, eventually trek into Missouri and towards southern Michigan. Due to ample cold air, areas located to the north of the center will experience wintry weather, while liquid precipitation will fall to the south.


Because there is a good grasp on the certainty of the path and precipitation type with this next news headliner, the National Weather Service has already placed many from the Rockies to the western Great Lakes under Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and even Blizzard Warnings. Each area you see on the image to the left that's  highlighted in color are locations under winter weather alerts. Snow accumulations could top off near a foot for some, but the strongest winds and blizzard conditions will most likely be felt in western Kansas. Winds could whip over 60mph at times, causing whiteout conditions and halting travel.
 
Sure, the winds will increase all over the Brazos Valley tomorrow and Thursday, but we are well south of the cold air that snow will not be our issue. Therefore, a line of thunderstorms will be our main concern and approach around midnight Thursday. Severe weather should not be a concern, but some of these storms will produce gusts near 40mph, brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Once the front moves though, the gate will open up and cold air will unleash from the north. A gusty north wind will shuttle in much colder air for Thursday. Therefore, the 80 degree weather will be wiped out and its replaced with highs in the 50s, and yes overnight lows below the freezing mark. Cooler air will stay in place though Saturday before another big storm approaches.
 
Computer models are hinting on another, more powerful storm to drop into the southern Rockies and cut across Texas next week, just after Christmas. Its still way too early to call, but it will be interesting to watch because there is the potential for severe thunderstorms and even snow in parts of Texas. If this pans out, there could potentially be huge problems travelling on the roads and though the air. I will keep you posted, but remember, this is still several days out and the forecast can change. The image to the right is just one models solution to the onset of precipitation with the potential next event. Snow Texas does happen, but not often, especially around Dallas and Waco.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.