Christmas Severe Weather Breakdown

Could you believe it, but Christmas is here!!!! Santa has already been working hard this Christmas Eve delivering presents to many all across the world and eventually the big guy in the bright red suit will make and appearance here. Rudolph will have no trouble guiding good ole St Nick though the weather in the Brazos Valley. However, once we turn the calendar to Christmas Day, our potential for turbulent weather goes up and some of these storms will reach severe levels.

As of this evening, the main engine of low pressure that will drive these storms continues to sit over the Colorado Rockies. Despite the length of distance this low needs to make in order to get here, its a fairly quick mover. It will be such a swift mover that we will begin to feel some effects around 3am tomorrow (Christmas Day) morning. Additionally, note how the center of low pressure is attached to a warm front. In fact, this was the cold front that moved though our area last night. Now, its going to lift back north as a warm front that will be one of the key triggers to firing off strong to severe thunderstorms.

Before we get into the nitty gritty, the Storm Prediciton Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma believes that there is a heightened potential for severe weather here overnight. Therefore, our entire viewing area has a "slight risk" of severe weather overnight. Basically, the SPC uses this terminology to give awareness that the weather for a certain area has the potential to be rough. Not only will the Brazos Valley feel the effects, but the severe threat extends in to Louisiana, Mississippi, and even Alabama too.

Since we have the ground work laid out for you, lets talk about the specifics in terms of timing and impacts. Now, the center of low pressure currently over the Rockies will slide down into central Texas overnight. At the same time, a warm front that is currently to our south will begin to lift north. Furthermore, instability will take place and thunderstorms will initiate.

This first step will occur between 3am-6am early Christmas Day. Thunderstorms that breakout in this timing window will be isolated, but are not limited to producing strong gust winds, heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning. Several of these storms will carry severe characteristics, but it wont be widespread.

Here is a look at how one computer model illustrates the early thunderstorm activity.

Here is the kicker, after 6am, the warm front will completely pass though the Brazos Valley and heighten the potential for damaging storms from 6am - 10am. If this occurs, we will be in an area between the warm and cold front, known as the "warm sector". Not only does this zone create stronger storms, but the potential for tornadic development. Additionally, a line will develop ahead of the cold front that could generate winds above 60mph at times.

 

 



Again, if this occurs, our threat for tornadoes goes up, but is not guaranteed. However, if the warm front stays to our south, thunderstorms will still be strong, but the threat for tornadoes shrinks significantly. Nonetheless, this will be a situation that will be a waiting game to see the exact track of each piece of the puzzle.

In the end, the entire area will receive a fair amount of rainfall, which is much needed.

In some of the stronger storms, a few locations could pick up over 2 inches of rainfall.

So here is the breakdown for you:

Timing: 3am - 10am.

Impact: Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and a potential for isolated tornadoes.

But don't fear, I will make sure to keep you informed on Facebook, Twitter, and on-air if we need to break into programming. KAGS-HD is committed to keep you in the loop before, during and after the storm.

Finally, once the cold front moves passed us, it will turn sharply colder and windier.

Be safe and have a Merry Christmas! Tonight will be a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radios, or download the KAGS-HD Weather app that will alert you if severe weather strikes.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.