Summertime High Here, Tropics Heating Up

An abundance of fun in the sun here in the Brazos Valley, and a whole lot more to come. Typically this time of the year, we experience prolonged periods of dry weather along side some high heat. All of this can be related to high pressure in the upper levels that barely budges and keeps similar weather conditions, for days, if not weeks at a time.

At the moment, the center of this upper level high is just to our north and north west. Additionally, where this high sets up correlates to the hottest air.

Locations from the Texas Panhandle to Oklahoma have been hoping for cooler air because they have felt 100 degree weather for the past 2 weeks straight. Unfortunately, the grip of this high pressure cell is quite tight and will not looses over the next 7-10 days. Not only does the really hot weather fall right under the high, but its tough for organized clouds and rain to penetrate this atmospheric shield. Instead, all of the "interesting" weather flows clockwise around the high.

That's what we have going on over the next week here, but in other parts of the world, the tropics are coming back alive. Approximately, 3,500 miles away is a tropical wave that could strengthen over the following 48 hours or so.

All you see within the yellow circle is a batch of convection with thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will investigate this region for possible tropical development. I would not worry at this time for its movement or forecasted strength. However, this will be an area that I will monitor for further evolution. If this were to turn into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Ernesto.

Besides, the possibility of seeing Ernesto....there are 3 key locations we need to keep our focus on as we turn to August.

The Gulf of Mexico has shown historically that tropical cyclones can form easily during August.

The same goes for the Western Caribbean.

And finally, the Atlantic Ocean.

August is the beginning of prime time for the Hurricane Season, and these three zone are the most critical. We will look out of any development and keep you updated.

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Pattern Shift = Plenty of Sun For All

For the past 8-9 days, our region has experienced quite a bit of wet weather. We never had a shield of rain at one time, but rather individual storms that consumed tropical moisture that was in place and dispensed extreme rainfall rates. Several locations received close to 8 inches of rain in our viewing area. Closer to Houston, 12-14 inches fell. When you take a look at our latest pattern, this actually has been a bit atypical.

Not only has this been a bit different than normal, due to our drought last year, but when you look at the nation as a whole. Most of the lower 48 happens to be in a moderate drought or worse. Approximately 60% of the U.S. is under drought conditions.

The good news in the short term is that several thunderstorms are lashing areas that really need the rain.

The problem will be the long term because the image you see above will be quite different the rest of this week and right though next week.

In the upper levels a strong summertime ridge will take shape and dominate most of the nation.



Under this high, not only will there be plenty of sunshine, but the temperatures will begin to rise rapidly. Note: Under areas of high pressure, the air sinks. When the air sinks, it dries, compresses and warms. Therefore, cloud development will be few and temperatures will fluctuate rapidly from nighttime lows to daytime highs.

Here in the Brazos Valley, we will dodge the extreme heat and settle in the 90s each afternoon with moderate levels of humidity.

However, areas that are located directly under the high will feel the sizzle. From Kansas to Missouri, there will be temperatures from 100-105 this weekend.

Overall, we turn to a drier pattern with more sun, at least it wont be extremely hot.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Much Drier This Week

Despite several isolated showers in the forecast until Wednesday, this week will shape up to be much drier than last week.


From last Sunday to Saturday, the official report from Easterwod Airport showed 3.51" of rain fell. That of course is just for a single location. Several isolated locations across the Brazos Valley from doppler radar estimates illustrated close to 7" of rain fell. One example of extreme rainfall came just south of Brenham, where flooding was reported. Nonetheless, everyone picked up a healthy drink of water which will put a nice dent in the current drought.

When you compare the numbers that we have this year, to all of 2011, we are doing quite fine. From the reports at Easterwood, all of 2011 there was 19.97" of precipitation. So far this year, and we are not even 7 months into the year.....29.15". However, additional rainfall is much needed, but this week will be tranquil.

High pressure in the upper levels is anchored along the east coast and stretching into our neck of the woods.

With a clockwise flow around high pressure, a southeast flow will continue to shuttle in plenty of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the humidity will not go away, but the atmosphere will slowly stabilize during the week.

During the stabilization process, a few storms can still ignite though Wednesday.

 Know that the rain this week will not be as widespread and will not be as heavy. Also, from Thursday through the weekend, sunshine will return along with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

Just a couple more days to get by and then the sun comes back.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Rain, Rain...Don't Go Away....



Within a 6 month period we went from historic drought, to no drought, and for parts of the Brazos Valley, back into an Extreme Drought. It has been a very up and down ride, but good news is that the current pattern supports abundant moisture, cloud cover, and yes some heavy rain at times.

A body of high pressure that has controlled our heat and dry weather finally moved out. Now the Gulf of Mexico is open for business. Additionally, we have a formidable one...two punch that enhances our rain chances.

Not only is there a deep moisture flow from the Gulf, but an upper level low sits stationary in northern Louisiana. Around this counter-clockwise spin of low pressure, each afternoon, individual storms will blossom with the heating of the day and rotate around this weather system.

Our second punch, that will concentrate the heaviest rainfall comes with a front draped across the Brazos Valley, though the Mid-South.

While this front hangs around, we will see thunderstorms each and every day though the tail end of the work week. Exactly where this front sets up shop is where the heaviest rain will fall. Nonetheless, storms that fire up will dump a quick 1-2 inches of rain in just a 30 minute window.

What you need to know is that the morning hours should remain dry, but around noon is when thunderstorms will begin to ignite. Not everyone will see rain at the same time, but when you see a storm it will dump very heavy rain along with a wind gust of 40mph, frequent lightning and even small bits of hail. Plus, the risk for tornadoes will be near 0%.

Heaviest of the rain will fall through Wednesday with fewer areas of wet weather Thursday and Friday. As of right now, the weekend will be steamy, with a small chance of rain....sun should be the main weather feature this weekend.

Overall, many of us will see between 1-3 inches of rain this week, with pockets in localized areas near 5-6 inches where the heaviest storms fall.

The following is on of the computer models we use. This one in particular estimates total rainfall though Wednesday afternoon.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.