Within a 6 month period we went from historic drought, to no drought, and for parts of the Brazos Valley, back into an Extreme Drought. It has been a very up and down ride, but good news is that the current pattern supports abundant moisture, cloud cover, and yes some heavy rain at times.
A body of high pressure that has controlled our heat and dry weather finally moved out. Now the Gulf of Mexico is open for business. Additionally, we have a formidable one...two punch that enhances our rain chances.
Not only is there a deep moisture flow from the Gulf, but an upper level low sits stationary in northern Louisiana. Around this counter-clockwise spin of low pressure, each afternoon, individual storms will blossom with the heating of the day and rotate around this weather system.
Our second punch, that will concentrate the heaviest rainfall comes with a front draped across the Brazos Valley, though the Mid-South.
While this front hangs around, we will see thunderstorms each and every day though the tail end of the work week. Exactly where this front sets up shop is where the heaviest rain will fall. Nonetheless, storms that fire up will dump a quick 1-2 inches of rain in just a 30 minute window.
What you need to know is that the morning hours should remain dry, but around noon is when thunderstorms will begin to ignite. Not everyone will see rain at the same time, but when you see a storm it will dump very heavy rain along with a wind gust of 40mph, frequent lightning and even small bits of hail. Plus, the risk for tornadoes will be near 0%.
Heaviest of the rain will fall through Wednesday with fewer areas of wet weather Thursday and Friday. As of right now, the weekend will be steamy, with a small chance of rain....sun should be the main weather feature this weekend.
Overall, many of us will see between 1-3 inches of rain this week, with pockets in localized areas near 5-6 inches where the heaviest storms fall.
The following is on of the computer models we use. This one in particular estimates total rainfall though Wednesday afternoon.
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