ICE....ICE....BABY!!!!

I could only recall Vanilla Ice had one big hit, Ice Ice Baby! I admit that I am listening to the top hit while writing this blog that could contain some ice for the Brazos Valley.

The cold front that will move in here has already passed parts of the state where the temperatures contrast between deep south Texas and the Panhandle is quite extreme this evening.

High resolution data shows that the range from high to low across the state is 19° to 90°. Yeah....this is a serious cold front with more Canadian air where that came from. What this map really shows off is not only the impressive shot of arctic air, but how quickly the temperatures will drop once the front actually passes.

What will be interesting to watch as this whole weather pattern evolves is the interaction of the cold air, and the presence of moisture that will hang on behind the front. Besides mid level rotation which aids the production of a wintry mess for north Texas, the upper levels illustrate added moisture coming off the Pacific Ocean.

Not only will this flow from the Pacific Ocean help to warm temperatures aloft, it will bring in an extra source of juice for the formation of precipitation.

Our real concern will not only pertain to the atmospheric profile, but how the temperatures at the surface respond after the cold air advances. As the atmosphere changes following the passage of the cold front, air above the surface should be warmer than freezing. In turn, precipitation that falls from the base of the clouds will melt into rain. However, if the ground temperatures are at or below freezing, then an icy scenario is in our future.

Right now, I do not see any freezing precipitating on Thursday, but there could be pockets of freezing drizzle Friday afternoon and Saturday. In terms of how this event will hash out, the Brazos Valley will avoid the worst of the storm.

A major ice storm is not going to happen here, but a light glaze of ice could form which will cause very ticky travel. Even a little bit of ice can cause HUGE problems. For areas such as Dallas, Fort Worth, Tyler, Fort Smith, Arkansas, a fairly major storm will set up with ice accumulations higher than .25" for many locations. I do not expect that here.

Milam, Robertson, and Leon counties have the best chance in our viewing area to receive a light coating of freezing rain Friday afternoon and Saturday. Bryan and College Station also have the chance for minor ice accumulations, but this is going to be a forecast to closely monitor.

Additionally, I would like to add that the soil temperatures are currently in the 50s. In order to see ice accumulate, the road and soil temperatures need to drop to freezing. Therefore, even if the air temperature hits 32° with rain falling, the initial precipitation may stay as liquid until the surfaces drop to or below freezing.

Whether ice is achieved or not, the weather will be very cold and very windy. Stay warm my friends.


"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Arctic Blast: Round 2

What goes up, must come down! Following a beautiful weekend, the temperatures began to sky rocket into the 70s and 80s across most of Texas to kick start this new work week.

For the second day in December, the average temperature reported at Easterwood Airport in College Station is 65°. Therefore, on this Cyber Monday, if you love warm air, today was a huge bargain for this time of year. In fact, this warm air will hang around through the middle of the week, before a major push of Canadian air heads our way once again. Just like early last week, we will have a repeat performance.

In order to experience a huge shift in our weather, we first need a fresh batch of hard core cold air in Canada and Alaska.



With a core of sub-zero temperatures, this air is poised to make a move into the United States and eventually in our direction. The air will moderate during it journey down, but the whats left will make us grab our winter coats and turn up the heat!

Ahead of the impending cold blast, the National Weather Service has already posted widespread Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings for many locations in the northern Rockies and Plains.

Mostly the higher elevations in the Rockies will accumulate large mounds of snow with some locations receiving nearly two feet! Its white gold for all of the ski resorts, not really gold when it comes to traveling.

Nonetheless, the cold air should arrive in the Brazos Valley sometime early Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this push of really cold stuff, clouds will increase and periods of rain will overspread the region. Once the cold front hits and moves by Thursday afternoon, temperatures will drop like a rock as a gusty north wind will help shuttle in our new air mass.

From Friday and into the weekend, expect highs to only reach the 40s with overnight lows dipping into the 30s along side a gusty wind, making it feel even colder. Additionally, clouds and some precipitation will hang back over the cold air, which in turn could cause icy conditions for parts of north Texas around Dallas and Fort Worth.

I will make sure to keep you posted should any changes arise.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Arctic Chill, Arctic Weather, Let's Bundle Up....

We are in a for an interesting ride here in the Brazos Valley. In fact, most of Texas is in for a potpourri of weather, including wintry precipitation. It will first begin with a cold front that will plow away all of this warm air and kick it way out. In its place, a surge of MUCH COLDER air which will move in for the long haul.

As of Thursday afternoon, the front has already passed through most of Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. Notice the contrast in temperatures between the below freezing air in Amarillo with the heat in San Antonio. This cold front will literally flatten our warmth, quickly.

At the moment, the front should arrive around 3am Friday morning, where the temperatures remain in the 70s, but following the passage of this Blue Norther, we will already cool down into the 40s by 7am Friday. Additionally, there will be several showers and thunderstorms as the front passes. Furthermore, the wind will turn around from the north and gust 30-35mph at times through the day on Friday. Therefore, its going to feel more like the 30s for most of the day when you factor in the wind.

FYI: This will not be a short lived cold spell, it will remain cold for the weekend and most of next week too.

Clouds and showers will hang around on Friday and into the weekend as well. Where temperatures are cold enough, pockets of Freezing Rain and sleet, along with several snow showers will develop in Hill Country and west Texas.

Then another dose of energy will take aim at us by the second half of the weekend.

An upper level low slowly moving eastbound, will hook up with the cold air in place and help to produce snowfall for mainly areas in the panhandle and west Texas for the first time this season. Snow could pile up over 10 inches in a few isolated areas.

What we need to keep our eyes on is how cold it will be as this upper level storm moves over the Brazos Valley. By late Monday, this energy will help to spawn a surface storm along the Texas gulf coast.

Areas of green and blue illustrate where precipitation will be falling. However, with temperatures forecasted to be in the 30s here, it could get a little interesting late Monday and Tuesday morning.

Right now, the air should be just warm enough that any precipitation that falls will all be in the form of rain. Yet, this can change and we will keep you in the loop. If the air does in fact get colder than the forecast above, a period of sleet or freezing rain could occur, mainly in our northern counties (Milam, Robertson, Leon).

Overall, make sure to have your winter coat handy, and an umbrella too. Its going to be a cold, cloudy, and dreary next few days.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 

Extreme Cold By The Weekend

Quite and interesting weekend here across the entire Brazos Valley. We have been so used to the cooler and drier air as of late, that the weather this weekend seemed like a big surprise. According to the climate report from Easterwood Airport in College Station, the official high for Sunday was recorded as 84°, just shy of the daily record of 85° set back in 1921. Besides the heat, it was HUMID....yuk!!!  Since, a cold front came by Monday afternoon, which will spill in cooler and drier air.

Overall, it looks like this week should be fairly quiet. Clouds will come back towards the end of the week, as well as additional warmth and moisture. Plus, several showers will be around from time to time on Wednesday and Thursday.

THEN COMES THE BIG SHOW!!!!!!

A pool of Arctic air, building in the northern reaches of Canada will move down into the United States and unleash its fury.

By Friday, a strong cold front will move across the state of Texas cropping up rain and a few thunderstorms on the front side, where the back side of the front will have much COLDER AIR.

Notice in the following diagram that there is a body of high pressure ("H") over southern Saskatchewan, Canada, with a forecasted pressure near 1053 millibars.

This is the GFS's (Global Forecast Systems) simulation of the weather for midnight Saturday. When you add in very cold Canadian air and the potential of a very strong high pressure center to deliver this cold air, this tell me a couple of things.

1) The cold air can move this far south.
2) Yes, the temperatures will moderate, but will still hold its core.

In other words, this weekends weather will make you shiver.

Furthermore, look at the temperature anomalies compared to average with this arctic outbreak.

We are looking at temperatures that will probably be around 10°-13°C (18°-24°F) below the climatological average for this time of the year. Therefore, high temperatures may only approach the middle 40s, with overnight lows in the 30s. Yeah....it cold be that cold around here. But here is the twist.

Typically in our part of Texas, a cold air mass will swing in for a day or two, then the temperatures climb pretty quickly, but this is not the case for this event coming up. Its seems like the cold air could stick around for a longer period of time. Maybe 4-5 days, if not longer, beginning on Saturday.

On top of all of this cold news, snow could fly in parts of the panhandle and west Texas as well for the first time this season.

The forecast can change, but use this information as a heads up that a big change is headed our way this weekend.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.