From Drought To Rain Overload

For the most part of 2013, a majority of the the Brazos Valley, and in fact a big chunk of Texas has dug into a deeper drought. Several storms were able to dump an immaculate amount of rain, but as we know best, we are a "feast or famine," part of the country. Either its prolonged dry spells, or quick splashes of rain. However, last weeks event which occurred from Thursday to Friday was a true treat and invigorated our soils.

Take a look at where we started before last weeks events. The following image is from the latest Drought Monitor Report that is uploaded weekly by the USDA and NOAA.

Yikes! Most of the Brazos Valley during last Thursday's report is currently under a Severe Drought, with several areas outlined as an Extreme Drought. You don't even have to look at this image to know whats going on. Lawns have gone from a vibrant flush green, to dried out, brown weeds. Plus, for the year of 2013, Easterwood Airport's climate report noted we were a solid 3.50"+ below average.  Nevertheless, three soaking rounds of rain were able to pick up our spirits.

According to Easterwood Airport, in a 48 hour period, and incredible 4.43" of rain fell. This brings the yearly total to 13.97", and turns the 3.50" deficit into a minor surplus compared to average. Furthermore, there were several locations across the Brazos Valley, especially in Madison County which picked up close to 6.00" or rain during the same period. As good as it was to see a heap of wet weather, minor flooding caused problems all around the region. Nonetheless, I am sure there will be a huge swing from the current Drought Monitor to the new report that comes out Thursday morning.

If you thought we were done with the rain for now.....hold your horses, another dose is on the way. This time around, the rain will not be as widespread and as heavy as last week. What we are watching is an upper level feature over the northwest side of Mexico.

Slowly, but surly, this feature will rotate into Texas and spawn several showers as well as a few thunderstorms. Timing at the moment looks generally around Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with the best chance of rain coming in Wednesday. A few of these storms could have a period of brief heavy rainfall, and severe weather will no be part of the picture. Just make sure to have the umbrellas ready. In addition, by the end of the week and into the weekend, expect the temperatures to rise to levels we have not experienced yet this year......90s may be coming soon!!!!


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



A Texas Sized Rain Storm, Severe Storms Too

If you remember around this time last year, the drought was so bad, that even if you watered your lawn, it would stay brown. However, a storm late in January 2012 brought tremendous rainfall, flooding and even severe weather. It was this storm that began a chain of wet weather events to helping to turn the brown into a beautiful lush green. Another event is setting us as I write this that will hammer the entire viewing area, and in fact most of Texas with a wall of water.

At the moment, there are two main features with this next storm, a low-pressure center at the surface, and another in the upper levels. During this blog, we will concentrate on the low-pressure center at the surface. As of Monday afternoon, the center of low pressure resides in north Mexico with a movement towards the east. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of this storm will slide into south Texas. At this time, intense strengthening will take place, and widespread rain will take shape. 

Along the east side of this storm, a warm front will extend from south Texas to the upper Texas coastline. Ahead of the front there will be a shield of widespread rain with several embedded thunderstorms. In the meteorological world, we call this type of set up, "overrunning precipitation." Where the warm air aloft runs over the cooler air at the surface. Therefore the air lifts, condenses and creates precipitation. During this time, you will notice pockets of light rain early in the day Tuesday, with steadier, heavier rainfall by the afternoon and evening. But here is where the scenario gets interesting. The body of low pressure will move basically due north.

As the low moves north from Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, we will be in an area called the "warm sector." This is an area between the warm and cold front. Temperatures will rise though Wednesday morning, but this also puts the Brazos Valley in a location favorable for severe thunderstorms. Within this region, winds at the ground and aloft tend to have different speeds and directions, plus there tends to be additional instability. In other words, there could be a few storms that create winds greater than 58mph, large hail, and even a tornado. Furthermore, in this zone, rain will come down even harder on Wednesday than what we experience ahead of the warm front on Tuesday.

When it comes to the risk of tornadoes, data shows that the tornado risk will be small. I cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornadoes, but the dynamics of this particular storm do not favor a huge outbreak. Nonetheless, I will keep my eyes peeled throughout the entire storm and keep you in the loop on Twitter, Facebook and On-air.

What we will all remember from this event will be the tremendous rainfall and possible flooding. Because the center of low pressure will move due north from south Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday, rain will fall over the same areas for a 36 hour period. By the end of this, some locations could pick up nearly 6"-7" of rain. Below is one computer models projection on general rainfall amounts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Again, this will be the general amounts received with pockets of higher totals. Due to the strong confidence in  this rain event, the National Weather Service out of Houston decided to slap on a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of southeast Texas from 12PM Tuesday until 12AM Thursday.

Considering the extend of heavy rainfall, I would not be surprised if this WATCH were to be extended into portions of north and central Texas. 

Overall, the simplify things, here is what you need to know:

Tuesday: Light rain becomes heavy during the evening and several thunderstorms will be around.

Wednesday Morning: Rain becomes heavier, thunderstorms could be severe with a small threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday Evening: The storm lifts north and we gradually dry out.

Impacts: Widespread 3"-5" rainfall total with a few locations picking up nearly 7". Flooding will be a concern, along with isolated severe thunderstorms.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.