RAIN IS COMING!!!!! :)

We have been waiting for this moment for basically the entire summer. Its our first big shot at rain, plus it comes with a cold front that will dramatically change the face of our weather from Friday and into Saturday.

There are several players involved with our next system, and all of the essential ingredients are coming together very well. First, a fetch off the Gulf of Mexico is drawing in rich moisture that will enhance how much rain we will experience in total. Additionally, a cold front to the north and west will swing by, interacting with the Gulf moisture combining for a free car wash.

As far as this evening, several showers will be around, but it will not be a washout. Into Friday morning's commute, areas of light rain will break out. By the afternoon, the cold front will edge closer and generate widespread heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms across the Brazos Valley.

Thunderstorms that erupt will remain below severe limits. At times the wind could gust over 30mph along with frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. Heaviest rain should fall between 3PM - 11PM. This will be tough for the evening commute and for area High School Football games. Yes, the game will go on in the rain, however, delays and even cancellations could occur if lighting is in the area. Make sure to stay aware of the weather all day long. You can always go to KAGStv.com for the latest, you can check out our social media feeds or even download the KAGS-HD Weather App, its the has the best and most up to date radar in town.

Moderate to heavy rain will stick around though midnight and then tapper to a few lingering showers by Saturday morning. By then, the sun will begin to come out, and a very nice flow from the north will significantly reduce the humidity levels.

 

From Saturday afternoon through Sunday, the weather will be marvelous. Between now and then, a lot of rain will be falling. How much???? Well some of the computer models think upwards of 4" in several spots.

 

 

Use the above image as guidance. In other words, yes, it will rain, and there will be a lot. 2-3" of rain is a good possibility, with several locations picking up 4-5". Therefore, since there will be a lot of rain in a short period of time, flooding could occur. If you are driving and notice a road covered with water, make sure to turn around and take an alternative route. You never know how deep that water is and its best to avoid the risk.

 

Overall, keep the wet weather gear handy all day. We have been waiting for this and our time has come. Enjoy the rain, be safe and I will keep you in the loop.

 

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android. 

Ingrid Made Landfall & A Taste of Autumn May Fall

After talking about Ingrid and its origins for a week or so, the storm finally made landfall in Mexico, about 200 miles due south of Brownsville. The unfortunate side of this story is that despite Ingrid's significant weakening, its a very slow moving system. With storms from tropical origins, rain can come down very hard in short periods of time. Flash flooding and even landslides have posed a multitude of problems south of the boarder with this phenomenon.

Rains from Ingrid are reaching areas from south Texas to San Antonio, and even the Brazos Valley might see a few light showers over the coming days from this system, but not coming with the violence of flooding. Over the next couple of days, parts of northeast Mexico may pick up an additional 5"+ of rainfall, while isolated locations in deep south Texas could collect 2-3" of much needed precipitation.

 

Most of this action is south of us, but make sure to keep the umbrellas ready, just in case a little dribble of rain falls from the sky early this week.

 

On another note, the latest computer models are gelling together something very nice towards the end of the week and into the weekend. The potential exists for our first complete cold front in a long time. This means rainfall ahead of the front, with some cooler, and less humid air behind it, just in time for the final days of summer.

 

Below is a prog from the GFS computer model illustrating a possible cold front passage by Friday evening along with a line of thunderstorms.

 

 

It not just this model, but other models that hint at this type of weather at the end of the week. Changes in the timing of this front can happen, and I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, behind the front, its going to feel sooooooo much better with a reduction in heat, and a major reduction in the humidity levels.

 

FYI....Summers final day is Saturday, as the Autumnal Equinox occurs at 3:44PM Sunday afternoon. 

  

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Could The Tropics Save Us?

If you could remember back in April or May when the Hurricane Season was predicted, media outlets were going bonkers because the forecast called for a very active season. For the most part, it’s been so quiet; you could hear crickets chirping all through the Atlantic Ocean Basin. As of Tuesday afternoon, only 8 storms were strong enough to be honored with names, Humberto being the latest. However, each named storm only approached Tropical Storm strength with no Hurricanes (winds 74mph sustained or stronger) yet. Humberto may become the first Hurricane of the season, but overall it’s been tranquil.

Yet, we should not give up because the middle and late stages of September is the heart of Hurricane Season and storms can form rapidly this time of year. Ocean water temperatures are the highest at this point of the year which tropical systems fall in love with.

For our concerns in the Brazos Valley, a storm with tropical origins could be what the doctor orders because we are now in an Extreme Drought. Rain is still a huge need around here, and the tropics could help.

 

A swirl of clouds and deep moisture is over the western Caribbean could make a move to the west and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico. Several reliable weather computer models hint at a strengthening body of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, and possibly head closer to us. What is certain is that some sort of tropical weather will take shape, but the track remains way up in the air, as these types of phenomenon can have a mind of their own. However, if we see some of this moisture move into the Brazos Valley, expect a deluge of rainfall which our crops will thoroughly enjoy. Timing at this point shows the potential for heavy rain between Sunday night and Tuesday.

 

Take this information with a grain of salt, but the potential is there. It might be the tropics that could help us out…..just a waiting game for now.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tropics Could Make It Interesting

I will tell you right upfront that I love the weather, especially when there is a plethora of variation, but sometimes, a repetitive pattern can make the weather seem bleak. Our weather story for August has been hot, humid and rainless, basically each day of the month. However, the recent trend points towards the "September Splash."

Sure, there has not been a "big" storm soaking the entire Brazos Valley at the same time, but a scattering of storms have alleviated the heat at times and giving our gardens a well deserved drink of water for some. Moisture continues to be pulled off the Gulf of Mexico continuing our chance for rain, but is there one of those "big" storms coming up??????? If there is, we would have to take a deep look at the tropics.

For a while, it seemed like tropical development took a long vacation, but now as we enter the heart of the season, more storms are beginning to brew.

 

At this time, Tropical Storm Humberto continues to swirl off the west African coastline and could strengthen to the first hurricane of the season. Additionally, another area of low pressure spins around the western Atlantic Ocean, well away from the east coast. So there is some activity around, but nothing close to us....yet.

 

A few weather computer models are hinting at the chance of tropical development in the Gulf closer to the weekend coming up. Again, this is all a little too far out, and many changes can and will most likely occur. Nonetheless, use this information as a heads up.

 

Below is the GFS model and its illustration of the weather by Monday.

 

 

Notice a tropical low pressure system, possibly a tropical storm could move towards the south Texas coast and throw heavy rain in our direction. A few other models lean in this direction, but again, its too early too call for specifics. However, if this pans out, this could be great for all of us.

 

I will make sure to keep you in the loop at all times. Just remember to always do a little extra rain dance.

 

Take a look up once in a while, you never know what you'll miss.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.