Since May 22nd, only 1.30" of rain was reported at Easterwood Airport in College Station. Other locations have picked up more with sporadic shower activity within the past week. Nonetheless, we need additional rain ASAP.
Our current pattern has featured an upper level wind field that favors drier air and lower temperatures, which felt phenomenal this past week.
Despite the needed break from high humidity, this pattern is breaking and will begin to favor the Bermuda high pressure to our east.
As the upper level wind flow shifts north, it will allow additional moisture to return, not only in the lower levels, but the mid and upper levels too. This means that the atmosphere will be primed for generating more clouds and even tropical downpours at times Sunday and Monday.
At the moment, the axis of rain remains to our east, but will slowly move closer.
Due to the high to our east, and the blocking upper level pattern, it has been raining for day on end from Florida to the Ohio Valley. Massive flooding and rainfall totals topping over 20" in parts of the Florida panhandle have been reported. We should not experience that much rain, but its a sign that this is a true tropical train, and when it rains it pours.
In addition, an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico will play a role as well in the development of rainfall. There is no closed circulation with this disturbed area, but the National Hurricane Center will investigate it.
The motion of this area of tropical juice is due north at a snails pace. However, some of this will move on shore during the weekend. That means, if you have plans to go to the beach, be prepared for some bouts of heavy rainfall.
I will keep an eye on the forecast, just in case there are any changes. At the moment, it seems like our timing will be between Sunday and Monday to experience this rainfall. Hit and miss storms are going to be the general rule for the Brazos Valley with a better chance of heavier and widespread rain over the Texas coast.
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