In A Flash: New Research at Texas A&M, Creating More Accurate Lightning Forecasts

The show is amazing; sporadic bright flashes of light illuminating the sky. It can be unpredictable, but advanced research happening in our own backyard will make lightning easier to predict.

Dr. Richard Orville at Texas A&M has created a new advancement to his National Lightning Detection Network.

At the moment, the current National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) serves the contiguous 48 states, monitoring lightning 24 hours a day. Not only does this network detect cloud to cloud lighting, but cloud to ground lightning in 30 minute cycles. However, Dr. Orville created a devise that will speed up the process and make it more reliable.

Dr. Orville explains, “Now that has been upgraded within the last year, so it’s a very reliable network. It’s a Lightning Mapping Array; it detects all electrical discharge from lightning….So we are plotting and making available on the Internet the locations of lightning really in 15 - 20 minutes before lightning comes to ground."

What makes this Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) so special is that it is 100% reliable, because it uses solar panels for power, as well as a wireless signal to collect and report the data. Furthermore, lightning flashes can now be detected on average 15 minutes sooner, and in turn allow additional lead time, and help meteorologists forecast more accurately.

Despite one lone sensor in Bryan, it works together with a larger network in Houston, monitoring the entire Brazos Valley.

There are no current plans to expand this network, but Dr. Orville notes that larger metropolitan areas will likely see these new devises first when the time comes.

With this new research in place, we may now know if lightning really does strike twice.

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GREAT Weekend Weather

Compared to the past two summer's, this season has been a breeze so far. Recently, typical summer heat and humidity levels have made it very uncomfortable to be outside for an extended period of time. However, some relief is on the way for the weekend.

In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a piece of energy called a "short-wave" is helping to spawn strong thunderstorms in northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas this afternoon. In addition, a "cold" front at the surface is trailing this system.

This front will be a huge game changer and shift our current pattern dramatically. Along and ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms are extending though west Texas. Eventually, as this front edges closer to the Brazos Valley, a few communities will have a period of heavy rainfall.

From the newest computer guidance, rainfall will not be widespread, but more spotty. Also, any storms that do pop up this evening will have the potential to drop heavy rain, generate lightning, as well as gusty winds. In our neck of the wood, all thunderstorms should not be severe. Timing of these storms will fall between 9pm tonight through 4am tomorrow morning.

Once the actual cold front passes by the Brazos Valley, the air mass will be noticeably different. Humidity levels will go way down Saturday, and temperatures will hover around 90°.

 

Most areas north of the front are enjoying beautiful mid-summer weather, and eventually we will be there very soon. At the moment, the comfortable air will stick around for Saturday before the Gulf invades the muggy stuff again for Sunday. The entire weekend will be great, but make sure to take advantage of the amazing weather Saturday will offer.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Weather Makes A U-Turn

We have been pointing at several really hot days coming up during the weekend, but sometimes the weather likes to take a U-Turn.

High pressure to our west in the upper levels of the atmosphere has been acting like a force field, blocking any storms trying to move into the Brazos Valley, and deflecting them away. Now this feature will begin to slightly break and it appears that some wet weather is coming back into view, in turn, keeping the scorching heat away.

In the meantime, a surface front, basically stationary, remains to our north. Disturbances and storms tend to ride along this path and drench cities in its path.

As high pressure begins to break this weekend, disturbances will have the ability to move closer to the Brazos Valley. In other words, keep the wet weather gear handy.

The following image is a print out of the NAM computer model, simulating the weather for Saturday afternoon.

 
Notice the green shades over southeast Texas. This is an area that has a good potential to experience several showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Additionally, a few light showers may linger into Sunday. Not only will this weekend weather feature keep the temperature well below 100°, but more importantly, help to green our lawns.

I will keep you in the loop in case there are any changes in the forecast. Make sure to join KAGS-HD at 6pm & 10pm for the latest on your forecast.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

High Pressure Promotes Heat

This weekend was a refreshing change as several downpours danced into the Brazos Valley soaking many areas. Doppler radar estimated totals around 2-3" of rain in a few communities for both Saturday and Sunday combined. However, there a report coming from south College Station on the border with Wellborn confirming 1.20" of rain in a 30 minute period on Sunday. However, those days are gone and the July sizzle came roaring back.

The key reason for the promotion of the abundant sunshine and heat originate from an are of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

From the arrows drawn on the image above, air tends to flow away and clockwise around the center of high pressure. However, its what happens in the "vertical" (up and down) that tells the true tail of our current stretch of hot weather.

In the "vertical," air tends to sink, or move downward. As this process occurs, air begins to compress, dry, and in turn heats up. Therefore, widespread upper 90s and temperatures are the result of this latest pattern. It all depends on the relationship of low level features teaming up with upper level features that will spell how hot it will actually get. Sometimes, there can be so much "sinking" in the "vertical," that the temperatures can heat up to nearly 110°.

Just know that the weather will be hot right through the weekend and make sure to stay cool as well as hydrated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Finally, Some Rain. Just What Robertson County Needed!

In a stretch of weather that we did not want to experience, drought levels increased and Robertson County is not looking too flush. According to the latest Drought Monitor, Robertson County is under “Extreme” drought conditions, one level away from “Exceptional”, which happens to be the deepest level of drought.

In a month that typically features vast stretches of dry weather, sunshine, and scorching heat, July surprised us with a little treat. An area of low pressure originating from the Northeast, cut off from the main upper level wind flow and retrograded back to Texas. Weather classically moves from west to east. However, in this case, a body of low pressure was not om contact with the jet stream, that steers storms east, and had a mind of its own. Therefore, it freely moved in on Texas and brought plenty of wet weather for Robertson County.

With the clouds and added moisture, temperatures struggled to move into the low 80s on Monday. This sure proves that when the sun is hiding behind the clouds, how the temperature truly responds. As of Monday afternoon, the official reporting station in Hearne recorded 2.16” of rain since Sunday. The last time Hearne officially received 1.00” of rain or more in a 24 hour period was back on April 2^nd, where 2.56” accumulated.

Clouds and rain will shift to north Mexico and in the near future as July heat and sunshine will dominate through the weekend. Another waiting game commences as we sit patiently for another shot of rain. 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android. 

Chantal Has Met Her Match

Tropical Storm Chantal was the talk of the town in the Atlantic basin as this was the only active weather event in the tropics. However, Chantal's story has come to an abrupt ending. Despite some promise from Chantal, the structure of the storm has not been impressive over the past 24 hours. Even this evening, Chantal looks rather ragged.

Chantal has dropped from tropical status and now is a remnant low pressure center producing winds around 45mph with heavy rainfall. Not only have dynamics in the atmosphere contributed to the demise of this storm, but more importantly, topography.

When tropical cyclones (a fancier name for a tropical storm or hurricane) move over land, they tend to weaken quickly. Namely because they are locked off their fuel, warm ocean waters. Additionally, landmasses contribute a lot of friction where as the water does not have as much friction. More friction means quicker weakening.

What is interesting about Hispaniola (Haiti and Dominican Republic) is that there is a range of Mountains that exceed 10,000 ft. Along the mid-section of the island, lies The Central Range, where the tallest peak, Pico Duarte sits at 10.128ft. This happens to be the tallest peak in the Antilles.

Not only does land itself add friction, but tall mountains add to the frictional effect. Therefore, when tropical cyclones move over Hispaniola or even the mountains in Cuba, significant weakening can occur. This is one of the key reasons why forecasting the track is crucial.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Heat Makes A Comeback

Did the sight of rain make you jump for joy? It seemed like forever since the last time a several parts of the area saw liquid fall from the sky. Most areas picked up less than 0.10" of rainfall, but at times, it was coming down quite heavily.

The above image illustrates the Doppler Radar estimated rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours. A majority of the wet weather fell across portions of Washington and Burleson counties. However, this is the only taste of rainfall we will get for several days as drier weather works in for the remainder of the work week.

An upper level high pressure system will take charge, drying up any chance at rainfall later this week.

From it's current position, the high in the upper levels will slowly shift west and straightening during the week.

Therefore, expect a lack of cloud cover, an increase in the maount of sunshine, and 100° days will be back by Thursday. Long term computer guidance suggests that this pattern will hold stead through the weekend and eventually break as rain could return by Monday of next week.

Finally, Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the Atlantic Ocean and will make a swift move towards the Dominican Republic and Cuba before grazing parts of the U.S. southeast coastline.

 

I will keep an eye out for Chantal's progress, but for the Texas coastline, there is no threat.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Rain Is Back In The Picture

We all love hearing comeback stories, especially in the sporting world. Our reality is that rainfall has been lacking, and in turn creating a deeper drought across the entire Brazos Valley.

Since May 22nd, only 1.30" of rain was reported at Easterwood Airport in College Station. Other locations have picked up more with sporadic shower activity within the past week. Nonetheless, we need additional rain ASAP.

Our current pattern has featured an upper level wind field that favors drier air and lower temperatures, which felt phenomenal this past week.

Despite the needed break from high humidity, this pattern is breaking and will begin to favor the Bermuda high pressure to our east.

As the upper level wind flow shifts north, it will allow additional moisture to return, not only in the lower levels, but the mid and upper levels too. This means that the atmosphere will be primed for generating more clouds and even tropical downpours at times Sunday and Monday.

At the moment, the axis of rain remains to our east, but will slowly move closer.

 

Due to the high to our east, and the blocking upper level pattern, it has been raining for day on end from Florida to the Ohio Valley. Massive flooding and rainfall totals topping over 20" in parts of the Florida panhandle have been reported. We should not experience that much rain, but its a sign that this is a true tropical train, and when it rains it pours.

 

In addition, an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico will play a role as well in the development of rainfall. There is no closed circulation with this disturbed area, but the National Hurricane Center will investigate it.

 

 



The motion of this area of tropical juice is due north at a snails pace. However, some of this will move on shore during the weekend. That means, if you have plans to go to the beach, be prepared for some bouts of heavy rainfall.

 

I will keep an eye on the forecast, just in case there are any changes. At the moment, it seems like our timing will be between Sunday and Monday to experience this rainfall. Hit and miss storms are going to be the general rule for the Brazos Valley with a better chance of heavier and widespread rain over the Texas coast.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

Quick Break From Summer

I am so glad that Saturday is a memory because it was too HOT! Easterwood reported a new record high for the day of 106°, which also tied for the highest temperature ever reported during the month of June. Additionally, Brenham regional airport checked in at 108°......that's smokin'.

Since, a cold front dropped in and delivered in much drier air with lower temperatures as well.

To really under sand how outstanding today has been as opposed to the past 5, here is a look at the high temperatures from College Station:

Thursday: 100°

Friday: 102°

Saturday: 106°

Sunday: 99°

Today: 87° :)

A day in the 80s has never felt so good. Coming from a high of 106°, the remainder of the week is going to be a breeze. Expect plenty of sunshine, high hovering in the lower 90s and very low humidity for this time of year. Plus, Independence Day will be smashing. Keep plan A on  for outdoor BBQ's, and fireworks.

FYI: Burn Bans and in effect for Lee and Leon counties, the remainder of the Brazos Valley is Burn Ban Free. Also, make sure to know your towns stance on fireworks before lightning them up.

Aside from the wonderful weather this week, as we turn towards the weekend coming up, an upper level low providing soaking rains over Florida will slowly approach east Texas and throw in some showers here.

 

I will keep an eye on this developing feature. In the meantime enjoy this wonderful welcome to the first week of July.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.