Coldest Air On Record For May

Spring is a season that helps the atmosphere transition from the harsh winter chill to the blazing heat of summer. As is typical of any transition, there are ups and downs, but there tends to be a progression. In other words, temperatures can fluctuate frequently this season, but what we have coming our way will shock you.

If you read the last post, we talked about a cold front that will drive in a huge pool of cold air which could set new record low temperatures. Now, there is high confidence this will happen, but between now and then, there is a lot to talk about.

As of this afternoon, the front crossed the Texas panhandle and took temperatures from the mid-90s yesterday, down to the 50s.

In just a 24 hour period, the temperature dropped nearly 50° from Dalhart to Amarillo. The temperature change will be drastic here too and we will feel it starting tonight.

A cold front along with additional upper level features is the main driver in this extreme May weather swing.

The cold front is responsible for the colder air, but notice the yellow line extending from low-pressure center. This is known as a dry line, and has the potential to erupt several strong to severe thunderstorms along it this evening. Due to its upward forcing, plus plenty of instability ahead of it, areas from the Hill Country to the Brazos Valley need to be alert. Thunderstorms are expected to line up west of I-35 this evening and eventually cross into the Brazos Valley around midnight. Details are not 100% determined, but this is the trend we see in the model data. One model that we use often here at KAGS, the RPM model, illustrates this complex to be here just after midnight.

 

Remember, this is the current trend, and the forecast can change. If these storms cross our path, they will produce heavy rainfall, lightning, winds over 50mph, and hail. I will make sure to keep you in the loop as this forecast comes together on Twitter, Facebook, as well as on KAGS-HD.

 

Update: There could still be a few isolated storms here, but not as likely as previously thought.

 

Nonetheless, following this line of potential storms, the cold front will be right on our doorstep early Thursday morning. Temperatures will fall all day long, several showers will fly around us, and the wind will whip up.

 

By the time you wake up tomorrow morning, temperatures will be falling from the 60s and into the 50s, where they will will hold all day long. Additionally, with a strong north wind clocking upwards of 40mph, it will feel VERY cold. Not only will an umbrella be a good idea to keep around tomorrow, also, bring out that winter coat from the back of the closet.

 

Here is where the other big story come into play. Once the sun sets tomorrow evening, temperatures will fall down into the 40s, which will be near record levels. The following image will guide you to the current records established at Easterwood Airport that could be in jeopardy:

 

 

Therefore, Friday....Saturday.....and Sunday morning coming up could feature new record low temperatures. Here is the kicker, if we break the record low on Saturday, it will not only mark a new daily record, but a new record low temperature for the entire month of May. Yeah its going to be that cold!!!! At the moment, I believe that we will tie, if not break the records Friday and Saturday. Not sure about Sunday yet, but this is not what we typically expect for May weather.

 

One final note, due to high winds and very dry air in place Friday, fire danger will be elevated. Keep that in mind as well.

 

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