Following a few strong storms Monday, the threat for severe thunderstorms are not done quite yet this week. Despite many tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service yesterday, there was one official confirmation of a tornado touchdowns. A report coming out of San Jacinto County in the town of Shepherd was interesting which indicated that the roof of a house was blown off. Following a survey, the National Weather Service has confirmed an EF-1 tornado touched down in Shepherd....Here is the official report: http://1.usa.gov/Yl8ygh
Nonetheless, a front blew though yesterday, and revealed a wonderful and crisp afternoon with morning temperatures in the 40s, while the afternoon settled in the low 60s. However, our fortune of sunshine will draw to a close tonight. High clouds from west Texas will drift in and blanket the sky. This is all ahead of a powerful low spinning over northern California at this time. Illustrated in the image on the right notes where the upper level energy is, where its already spawning precipitation in the form of rain for lower elevations in California, and heavy bands of snowfall for the higher terrain. Eventually, this upper level low will hook up with a surface feature that will rapidly strengthen on the lee side of the Colorado Rockies.
Extending from this surface low will be two primary fronts, a warm front and a cold front. By Wednesday morning, the warm front will straddle to our south and separate fairly stable air, to unstable air. The Brazos Valley will be on the stable side of the warm front Wednesday, however, warmer air will override cooler air at the surface and generate a shield of cloud cover and light rain fall. This type of situation is called "overrunning" in meteorological terms. Yes, the air is considered stable, but due to mid and upper level forcing, clouds and rain can still exists. Rainfall on Wednesday should be spotty and fairly light. No heavy downpours are expected. On the other hand, rain rates will increase, as well as the possibility of severe weather by Thursday morning.
Past midnight on Thursday morning, the warm front will lift north and the cold front will approach the Brazos Valley. Due to the fact that our region will be between the cold and warm front, we will be in a zone known as the "warm sector." Typically, this zone is highly unstable with different orientations of wind at the surface and upper levels. Therefore, expect the temperatures to rise though the morning on Thursday, and as the cold front approaches, thunderstorms will develop. From the latest computer guidance, it does not appear that flooding or hail will be a huge concern. Mainly, the possibility of wind damage and isolated tornadoes will be the primary concern. Due to strong winds sprouting from the jet stream, and storm that does develop Thursday morning will have the ability to rotate, and possibly produce a tornado. Not every storm will create twisters, but I will make sure to keep my guard up, just in case tornadoes do pop up.
The following two images denote the locations of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma.
Timing for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from a 5am to 11am in the morning. Due to an early morning event, some storms will crop up before sunrise and will be tough to see. Make sure to turn on your NOAA Weather Radio when you go to bed Wednesday night and you can stay in the loop with KAGS-HD on-air, and on social media. If a TORNADO WARNING is issued, KAGS-HD will be on the air to let you know the latest.
Overall, this will not be a huge outbreak, but the possibility for severe thunderstorms exist with the slight risk for isolated tornadoes.
No comments:
Post a Comment