Communicating Sandy And Potential Historic Storm A Tough Task

I am sure that most of you who are reading this blog are very familiar with Hurricane Sandy, as well as a potential blockbuster storm for the east coast. Many names come to mind when I was reading articles online and glancing at Twitter feeds. "Frankenstorm", "Megastorm", "Freakstorm", even notes about a Hurricane/Nor'easter hybrid, and finally comparisons to the "Perfect Storm" of 1991.

No matter the name, no matter the exact physics of the storm, whether its a warm core tropical cyclone or a cold core mid-latitude cyclone, forecasts are calling for a major impact event from Florida to Maine.

Questions still remain to be answered exactly where this storm will go. Models have begun to agree and gel together indicating that Sandy will move parallel to the east coast and eventually hook left (west), creating massive destruction. That said, additional data needs to be compiled for more confidence. Good news, is that more data will be coming. The National Weather Service will launch weather balloons 4 times each day at local offices, rather than twice, to get a better idea of the atmosphere's upper level structure. Once added balloon data is meshed into the models, forecast confidence will go way up. At the moment, we will not know 100% about the movement of the storm into the east coast until Saturday morning.

Anyway, back to the larger picture....how to communicate this type of potential disaster?

1) Its good to be aware, but make sure to tell the truth in what you know and what you don't.

What we do know is that there is a hurricane moving though the Bahamas and has the potential to move into the east coast early next week. Key word being POTENTIAL. Meteorologists use this term, because we base our forecast on computer simulations as guidance. The reason why you might hear television stations "hype" this event is due to the fact that many models agree that something big might happen.

Note: There are still a couple of outliers that try to take this storm well away from the coast, but a vast majority show an east coast landfall.

On the other side of the spectrum, when you look at history....this type of event is so rare that there is no comparison. Its OK to tell your audience how unique this situation is and why an official forecast is tough to nail down.

Tell them what you know and don't know....be honest.

2) Naming a storm a good thing?

Yes, and no.

Names stick to people's head and are used as an ice breaker around the water cooler. Additionally, if there is an underlying meaning, then the outcome will determine if the storm was worthy of the given name. Names can always make or break the public's trust in scientists, especially meteorologists.

Whether Sandy is used, or "Frankenstorm", communication though impacts is a better use of time, and mean more. Basically, rather than using a name, we need to tell the public that something unique could take shape, with potential high impact threats.

When it comes to a storm, the general public typically does not care about the science, just how it will affect their livelihood.

3) When should the "hype" come though fruition?

Since all the data has not been fully integrated, broad forecasts are best. Scenarios work in this situation. From there, the public should be aware of all the options due to uncertainty. But label each option with a level of confidence.

Once the data if fully ingested and a true pin point forecast can be made (which in my eyes seems like early Saturday morning), stronger, more dominant language should be used if danger is imminent.

From there, we need to answer a laundry list of questions for potential impacts in specific locations.

Where will it rain? When? How Hard? Where is the highest potential for flooding? How high will the waves be along the coast? Coastal erosion? How windy will it be?

Can this storm on its current path blow my house down? What about my boat on the dock? Will my family be OK?

Overall, this type of storm should be handled with care. Its good to see that people are aware of this meteorological event, but still too early to call exact shots. Furthermore, this is a perfect time to teach the public about how difficult forecasting can be though the science of meteorology.

Mixing teaching and forecasting can be the best way to communicate such a rare event.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Is A Hard Left Turn Possible For Hurricane Sandy?

Sandy continues to steal the headlines as this massive storm matured into a Hurricane. Winds have been clocked near 100mph at times as Sandy spins in ferocious waves and rainfall all across Jamaica. Swaths of rain have battered parts of Cuba, the Dominican Republic as well as the Bahamas. Also, Sandy has picked up additional forward speed towards the north and eastern Cuba is next in line to experience lashing effect.

The short term forecast remains the same, but in the long term (meaning early next week), computer models are coming more into agreement that Sandy may take a hard left hook and move into the Mid-Atlantic or New England coastline, which is giving many meteorologists headaches.

Before I dive into the history of tropical systems and Sandy's future, it is still way too early to call an exact forecast on this system. However, its always good to be aware of this possible situation and have a plan in place.

As far as the future forecast of this potential beast, its always good to take a look at the past. Right now, there are several models that indicate this storm to take a dynamic turn to the east. When you look at the history of tropical systems, or even typical mid-latitude cyclones, its quite difficult to make such a turn. Now, its very likely for any system as they move from the tropics to the north and make a hard turn right (east) due to strong westerly winds. Therefore, a 100% PERFECT set up is needed in order for the worst case scenario to occur.

The following images illustrate a couple hurricanes that I found to make an improbable turn around the Mid-Atlantic and New England:

1) Hurricane Connie 1955

Here, Connie took a couple of turns. One, to parallel the coast, and two, a left turn inland. But, this is not a hard left turn like some models say Sandy can do.

2) Hurricane Agnes 1972

 

Following a dip into the Atlantic Ocean, Agnes took a turn back inland and created trouble for many, especially along Long Island.

 

Of all the tropical system that I took a glance at, I could not find one that had similar origins as Sandy. Climatology suggests that a topical system which originate in the Caribbean and move north to the Atlantic, tend to get caught up in the westerlies and brush out to sea.

 

On the other hand, one of the more destructive storms to ever hit the northeast was known as, "The Long Island Express," or the New England Hurricane of 1938.

 

This storm did not wobble uncontrollably, but rather was picked up by a trough which accelerated forward speed. For a time, The Long Island Express moved with speeds over 50mph. Therefore, it had no time to be pushed out to sea. With a combination of forward speed and strong winds, a gust over 180mph was recorded at Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts....WOW!

I am not saying that Sandy will do this, but history gives us an idea, that it is extremely difficult for a storm to back into the northeast.

Despite all the records that we have, history was meant to be rewritten....right? Well, history happens all the time as meteorology is still a young science, with huge growth potential. Forecasting and modeling have come a long way, but still have a long way to go.

Nonetheless, there are a couple of features that could make or break a major crisis for the Northeast.

If you read the last blog, we noted a blocking pattern in Greenland, and how the orientation of a trough needs to set up perfectly for a hard left turn.

As of this afternoon, models are beginning to hint that a negatively tilted trough could happen and bring Sandy off the Atlantic and draw the storm ashore. Following deep analysis of many computer models, they all point to one thing that will help draw Sandy inland.

A shortwave at the 500mb (18,000ft) level, coming in front Canada could swipe the south side of the storm and knock it back east. The following images are 500mb plots with the short wave, or area of concern is before gyrating this storm back east.

1) 12z GFS

 

2) 12z EURO

 



3) 12z NOGAPS

4) 12z Canadian (CMC)

Each of these model outputs note a shortwave that could trigger a directional turn. Now the question lies in how strong this short wave will be and when it will move through. If it moves in early, a direct hit will occur, but if it shows up late to the party, the food will be gone and it will miss the US.

Furthermore, there is one more aspect that I want to look at. Its how the jet stream in the GFS model is plotted.

Circled is the eastern side of the jet stream that has much stronger winds than the western side. If what I learned in school is correct, due to this feature and wind profile, the trough that will make or break the storm should lift, rather than deepen. In other words, if the trough lifts, the the storm will not happen. According to this feature, the storm will not happen.

Again, its still too early to call how this will shape up, but all I want to say is that based on history, its going to be extremely difficult for this storm to pull out all of its ammo and directly hit the US. The forecast can change and as additional data comes in over the next couple of days, computer information will begin to gel together. Overall, yes it is still possible for Sandy to pound the northeast.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Historical Storm? Flop? Where is Sandy Going?

 

Despite a reprieve from the Tropical Season, it is not done quite yet. Officially, the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th every year. By October and November, activity typically winds down rather quickly. However, storms can still spawn and pack a punch, such as Tropical Storm Sandy that you see in the above image.

At the moment, Sandy is spinning about the southern Caribbean and poised to make a move over the island of Jamaica. From there, western Cuba will experience a bout of heavy rainfall as well as wind. Plus, the Bahamas and south Florida are on the radar for Sandy. But the larger question that every meteorologist is trying to find out is......where will the storm go from there?

You might have heard online or on television about Sandy becoming a storm of the century type scenario for the east coast. Some are saying that Sandy will drift out to sea barreling down Bermuda. In reality....ITS TOO EARLY. Way too early to call for an exact position more than 4 days out. Our short term forecast is solid, but early next week has a multitude of question marks.

Lets run down the two solutions that most are talking about right now....one, Sandy moving away from the U.S.....and two, a direct hit into Long Island or the New England Coastline.

1) Sandy Sets Sail

Long term climatology suggests that most storms with tropical origins this time of the year can parallel the east coast, but tend to move out into the deep waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Several computer models illustrate this exact movement, such as the GFS shown below:

 

In this case, several coastal communities from Florida towards North Carolina could get bands of heavy rain, but everyone along the east coast will experience unusually high surf and dangerous rip currents. Additionally, a trough in the upper atmosphere that will move across the lower 48 this week and into the weekend should kick Sandy far away enough to avoid a direct hit. On the other hand, depending on the orientation of the trough, that could help draw Sandy closer inland....which leads to our second solution.

 

2) Sandy Moves Up The Coast and SLAMS The Mid-Atlantic and New England

 

Aside from the vast majority of computer guidance, there are a couple of outliers that raise eye brows. Yes, there are a couple of models that show a worst case scenario for parts of the east coast, a crippling storm barreling towards many highly populated areas crushing communities with wicked wind, flooding and storm surge.

 

The following are a couple of images of the European Computer Model (EURO) and the NAVY (NOGAPS) clearing indicating landfall Tuesday next week.

 

 

Note: Before I go into why these models are showing this type of weather, know that every models has a different algorithm (or code) to predict future weather. That's the biggest reason why there are so many different forecast out there, especially in the long term. Additionally, meteorologist typically feel confident about long term forecasting when a majority of computer simulations agree with one another.

Anyway, the trough we talked about at the end of possibility #1 will help draw Sandy inland in the European and NAVY models, as opposed to kicking the storm out.

 

 

What you are looking at here is the 500mb plot (heights and spin around 18,000 feet above the ground). Notice how the trough over the Great Lakes bows from northwest to southeast. We call this a negative tilt. Most times when we talk about this type of tilt, it helps cyclones strengthen. In this model simulation, the trough is tilted in a fashion that the storm will move on top of this feature and will be guided inland. Plus, there is a strong blocking high over Greenland that could help push this storm back into the US. If this actually pans out, then the Mid-Atlantic and New England will have a huge problem on their hands.

 

Again, this is too early to call, but something to monitor. Personally, I feel Sandy will skim parts of the southeast and then move out to sea, but the forecast can change.

 

Once the National Hurricane Center accumulates additional data, we will have a better handle on the storm and its realistic path.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

 

 



Orionid Meteor Shower Peaks This Weekend

Its one of the most impressive shows that we can see here on Earth. Bits and pieces of rock flying though space interacting with our atmosphere, creating small balls of fire. No matter how many meteor showers you have seen, it always seems different.

We are treated two weekends before Halloween to a marvelous sight, the Orionid Meteor Shower. Despite the last visit from Haleys Comet 26 years ago, rocks and dust that will produce this weekends event are remnants from the famous comet.

The Orionids last from October 17th to the 25th. However, the time from Saturday night though early Sunday morning, will be the shower's peak. A time frame lasting midnight Sunday through dawn should produce 25 meteors per hour. However, the only drawback will be a 1/4 full, waxing crecent moon. Therefore, some of the meteors will be dimmed, if not impossible to see with the naked eye.

For best viewing, make sure to get as far away from city lights as possible. Have some hot cocoa handy and enjoy!

Yes, the weather here in the Brazos Valley will be perfect for viewing as the sky should remain crystal clear.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Blue Norther Sweeps In

Before I dive into the new blog I want to take some time here to say thank you to viewers and followers such as you. Today is a monumental day for KAGS-HD News. We mark our 1 year anniversary for being on the air delivering weather, sports, and news coverage for this area. Back on October 17th, 2011 we aired our first broadcast. From then to now, we stand tall and this operation continues to grow. Without you, we would not be where we are today. Thank you for watching us and giving KAGS-HD your support.

Now....lets get to business.....the weather.

There is only one way to say it; "what a difference a day makes." Yesterday, we were stuck under the clouds, along with well below average temperatures and widespread rainfall. Today, a complete 180° turn. Sunshine is in full force this afternoon, the wind has been wicked, plus the temperatures have sky rocketed.

 

Over the past 24 hours, the difference in temperature is over 20°F. Many areas in southeast and central Texas warmed into the 80s and low 90s. However, take a look at Amarillo and Oklahoma City, the air is cooling. Those locations are now behind a cold front that will swing by later this afternoon. With it, much cooler and drier air will filter in. As far as any precipitation?.....slim to none. Best chance for any storms will over the Texas Gulf Coast.

 

 

Despite the summer like feel this afternoon, a more Autumnal air mass will move in soon.

 

 





  Expect a ton of sun tomorrow with a gust wind at times, plus lower temperatures.

 

 

From the 60s yesterday, to the low 90s today, to the 70s tomorrow, its like a weather yo-yo. That's how Autumn is here in the Brazos Valley. Transitional seasons get the best of cold and warm air masses. Always remember to enjoy the weather we have outside.

 

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

Lexington and Caldwell Tornado Touchdowns Saturday

It seemed like a surprise to many, especially of those that were ready to hear the musical tunes of Roger Creager at the Texas Reds Festival in Downtown Bryan. However a dynamic storm that spun up in Lee County moved across our viewing area and washout the tail end of the festival. Additionally, two tornadoes were sighted.

The following is the information released from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center from yesterday's storm.

Well ahead of an approaching cold front Saturday evening, a supercell developed in Lee County and took on a classic hook echo shape. With just enough lift in the atmosphere along with sufficient wind shear a tornado spun up around 6:45pm near Lexington along Co Rd 408. Storm spotters on the scene indicated that this tornado only touched down for 20 seconds in a rural area. Following an assessment this morning, it was found that a house near Lexington was seriously damaged in the following picture.

Good news is that no one was injured, despite the grim look of the damage.

Once this storm left Lee County, it took aim on Burleson County. Despite weak rotation indicated by Doppler Radar, law enforcement eye witnessed a weak tornado about 4 miles to the west of Caldwell. This tornado landed near Co Rd 102 and Sugar Hill Rd in Caldwell. No damage or injuries were reported..

Nonetheless, it was a wind night with a pop up supercell storm, with additional heavy rainfall during the overnight hours. Easterwood reported 1.15" of rain with isolated spots in Burleson County picking up over 2" or rain.

To keep informed about the weather 24/7 you can download our free weather app for iPhone and Android. This will let you know if there is a watch or warning for your area. This is the best tool in our region during severe weather.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather  or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Cold Air Is Soooo Close, Yet, Soooo Far

I am proud to announce that this is the 100th post on this blog site. I want to thank everyone who has taken time out of their day to read this blog and watch KAGS-HD. We are closing in on our 1 year anniversary, and KAGS-HD continues to grow and serve the Brazos Valley with local News, Sports, and Weather coverage.

Anyway......the weather over the past week or so has been like a see-saw. Temperatures go up and down, some days are sunny, some are cloudy with heavy rain. Its a sign that the season has changed and Autumn is a transitional time for us. As we move closer to Winter, temperatures will bounce around, and yes, the heat will eventually be completely wiped away. Take a look at temperatures over the past 5 days, quite a difference from the weekend to this afternoon.

Following a cold front, the high Sunday only reached 63°, which is the same as our average temperature for December 9th. This afternoon however, we bounced right back into late summer with highs near 90°. Within a few days, we go from one extreme to another. The remainder of the week seems to be favoring a warming trend with high sticking around the upper 80s to near 90 with mid-90s by next week. Yikes!!!! That's hot!

Additionally, a front that was moving towards us this morning, decided to stall and is currently receding back north. Behind this front, it felt more like the middle of winter this morning in parts of Texas.

 

 

Folks in Amarillo woke up to bone chilling cold for this time of the year. While we remain on the warm and humid side of the front with lows in upper 60s along with patchy fog. Expect more of this right through the rest of the week, until another front tries to get going by the second half of the weekend.

 

Right now, the next weather warrior sits outside of California and could cause some big trouble this weekend.

 

 

This upper level system is harmless at the moment, spinning in some clouds and showers along the California coastline. However, it's upper level energy will strengthen rapidly with a few more crucial ingredients.

 

 

By Friday, the upper level energy you can see above 500mb chart, illustrated in yellow and orange over Kansas and Nebraska will shoot out of the Rockies and blossom into a larger scale storm that could produce severe weather well to our north. Not only is the increase in strength taking place at 500mb, but even higher up at jet stream level.

 



 

Notice the patch of blue from New Mexico towards Nebraska. This is called a jet streak. Jet streaks are important for storm amplification. From the shape and movement of this feature, it is apparent that storms will erupt on Friday and Saturday from the Central Plains to the Upper Mid-West. Additionally, this jet streak will not only generate long lived thunderstorms, but help to twist storms, increasing the chance for tornadic development. 

 

 

According to the GFS model above, rain will spread from Wisconsin to north Texas on Saturday, with the heaviest storms around Illinois. For us in the Brazos Valley, there is a slight shot of a few showers early Sunday, most indications show that this front will fizzle out and we could be left hanging dry once again.....I will keep you updated.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.