Summertime High Here, Tropics Heating Up

An abundance of fun in the sun here in the Brazos Valley, and a whole lot more to come. Typically this time of the year, we experience prolonged periods of dry weather along side some high heat. All of this can be related to high pressure in the upper levels that barely budges and keeps similar weather conditions, for days, if not weeks at a time.

At the moment, the center of this upper level high is just to our north and north west. Additionally, where this high sets up correlates to the hottest air.

Locations from the Texas Panhandle to Oklahoma have been hoping for cooler air because they have felt 100 degree weather for the past 2 weeks straight. Unfortunately, the grip of this high pressure cell is quite tight and will not looses over the next 7-10 days. Not only does the really hot weather fall right under the high, but its tough for organized clouds and rain to penetrate this atmospheric shield. Instead, all of the "interesting" weather flows clockwise around the high.

That's what we have going on over the next week here, but in other parts of the world, the tropics are coming back alive. Approximately, 3,500 miles away is a tropical wave that could strengthen over the following 48 hours or so.

All you see within the yellow circle is a batch of convection with thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will investigate this region for possible tropical development. I would not worry at this time for its movement or forecasted strength. However, this will be an area that I will monitor for further evolution. If this were to turn into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Ernesto.

Besides, the possibility of seeing Ernesto....there are 3 key locations we need to keep our focus on as we turn to August.

The Gulf of Mexico has shown historically that tropical cyclones can form easily during August.

The same goes for the Western Caribbean.

And finally, the Atlantic Ocean.

August is the beginning of prime time for the Hurricane Season, and these three zone are the most critical. We will look out of any development and keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Pattern Shift = Plenty of Sun For All

For the past 8-9 days, our region has experienced quite a bit of wet weather. We never had a shield of rain at one time, but rather individual storms that consumed tropical moisture that was in place and dispensed extreme rainfall rates. Several locations received close to 8 inches of rain in our viewing area. Closer to Houston, 12-14 inches fell. When you take a look at our latest pattern, this actually has been a bit atypical.

Not only has this been a bit different than normal, due to our drought last year, but when you look at the nation as a whole. Most of the lower 48 happens to be in a moderate drought or worse. Approximately 60% of the U.S. is under drought conditions.

The good news in the short term is that several thunderstorms are lashing areas that really need the rain.

The problem will be the long term because the image you see above will be quite different the rest of this week and right though next week.

In the upper levels a strong summertime ridge will take shape and dominate most of the nation.



Under this high, not only will there be plenty of sunshine, but the temperatures will begin to rise rapidly. Note: Under areas of high pressure, the air sinks. When the air sinks, it dries, compresses and warms. Therefore, cloud development will be few and temperatures will fluctuate rapidly from nighttime lows to daytime highs.

Here in the Brazos Valley, we will dodge the extreme heat and settle in the 90s each afternoon with moderate levels of humidity.

However, areas that are located directly under the high will feel the sizzle. From Kansas to Missouri, there will be temperatures from 100-105 this weekend.

Overall, we turn to a drier pattern with more sun, at least it wont be extremely hot.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Much Drier This Week

Despite several isolated showers in the forecast until Wednesday, this week will shape up to be much drier than last week.


From last Sunday to Saturday, the official report from Easterwod Airport showed 3.51" of rain fell. That of course is just for a single location. Several isolated locations across the Brazos Valley from doppler radar estimates illustrated close to 7" of rain fell. One example of extreme rainfall came just south of Brenham, where flooding was reported. Nonetheless, everyone picked up a healthy drink of water which will put a nice dent in the current drought.

When you compare the numbers that we have this year, to all of 2011, we are doing quite fine. From the reports at Easterwood, all of 2011 there was 19.97" of precipitation. So far this year, and we are not even 7 months into the year.....29.15". However, additional rainfall is much needed, but this week will be tranquil.

High pressure in the upper levels is anchored along the east coast and stretching into our neck of the woods.

With a clockwise flow around high pressure, a southeast flow will continue to shuttle in plenty of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the humidity will not go away, but the atmosphere will slowly stabilize during the week.

During the stabilization process, a few storms can still ignite though Wednesday.

 Know that the rain this week will not be as widespread and will not be as heavy. Also, from Thursday through the weekend, sunshine will return along with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

Just a couple more days to get by and then the sun comes back.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Rain, Rain...Don't Go Away....



Within a 6 month period we went from historic drought, to no drought, and for parts of the Brazos Valley, back into an Extreme Drought. It has been a very up and down ride, but good news is that the current pattern supports abundant moisture, cloud cover, and yes some heavy rain at times.

A body of high pressure that has controlled our heat and dry weather finally moved out. Now the Gulf of Mexico is open for business. Additionally, we have a formidable one...two punch that enhances our rain chances.

Not only is there a deep moisture flow from the Gulf, but an upper level low sits stationary in northern Louisiana. Around this counter-clockwise spin of low pressure, each afternoon, individual storms will blossom with the heating of the day and rotate around this weather system.

Our second punch, that will concentrate the heaviest rainfall comes with a front draped across the Brazos Valley, though the Mid-South.

While this front hangs around, we will see thunderstorms each and every day though the tail end of the work week. Exactly where this front sets up shop is where the heaviest rain will fall. Nonetheless, storms that fire up will dump a quick 1-2 inches of rain in just a 30 minute window.

What you need to know is that the morning hours should remain dry, but around noon is when thunderstorms will begin to ignite. Not everyone will see rain at the same time, but when you see a storm it will dump very heavy rain along with a wind gust of 40mph, frequent lightning and even small bits of hail. Plus, the risk for tornadoes will be near 0%.

Heaviest of the rain will fall through Wednesday with fewer areas of wet weather Thursday and Friday. As of right now, the weekend will be steamy, with a small chance of rain....sun should be the main weather feature this weekend.

Overall, many of us will see between 1-3 inches of rain this week, with pockets in localized areas near 5-6 inches where the heaviest storms fall.

The following is on of the computer models we use. This one in particular estimates total rainfall though Wednesday afternoon.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Pattern Change Means More Rain For Us

Typically this time of the year, especially in Texas, the weather tends to stay similar for prolonged periods of time. For example, last week introduced extreme heat, this week entails high humidity with several showers, but now everything is going to be mixed up come the weekend.

The "Brick Oven" if you will, or the upper level high pressure system that baked many parts of the central U.S. is finally going to make a move. Good news, because parts of Kansas reached 118°, and that's not the Heat Index, that was the actual air temperature IN THE SHADE! Nonetheless, this high that has blocked incoming cold fronts from sliding down the Rockies will take a journey to the western side of our fair country. What this means is that the western parts of the U.S. will begin to heat up, see plenty of sun and calm weather.

For us in the Brazos Valley and the rest of the U.S., the jet stream that has been cooped up in Canada can now relax and open up the doors for cooler air for the east coast. Not only will the east side of Canada bring relief to the sizzling east coast, but cold fronts can finally move into the Southeast and even into Texas.

As the core of heat slides west bound, the upper level flow will favor an abundance of moisture coming from the Gulf and moving into southeast Texas as well as the Brazos Valley. Furthermore, models are hinting that a cold front will move in from the north and stall early next week.

Along stalled fronts, many thunderstorms generate each afternoon with bouts of extremely heavy rainfall. And yes, this front will be close enough that we will see several days of strong afternoon thunderstorms to help soak the drought stricken vegetation.

I cannot exactly pinpoint where and when the storms will form this far out, but what I can tell you is that the best chance for wet weather will be from Monday to Wednesday.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

4th of July Forecast

Several showers and thunderstorms fell across the Brazos Valley this afternoon with the hardest hit location being Navasota. Other than a few more isolated showers, when the sun sets, the storms will set as well. When you take a look in the upper levels of the atmosphere, there is a dome of high pressure sitting to our northeast.

During the summertime, we call this upper level high or ridge, the ring of fire. Under this high is extreme heat, but around this baking oven are storms that fire all around it.

From the eastern slopes of the Rockies to Canada and around through the Gulf Coast, storms have been drenching many areas around this high. Additionally, we have a wind that is coming off the Gulf that has aided extra humidity and produced several sea breeze showers, some of which have been heavy.

By tomorrow, there will be a few more showers, but mainly over the coast and south of I-10. Here in the Brazos Valley, clouds should begin to break around tomorrow afternoon for Independence Day and the sun will finally be out for all of your outdoor activities.

Just in case a shower streams in off the Gulf, keep your umbrella nearby. You can always stay informed with the KAGS Weather app for Android and the iPhone.

Now lets get to the forecast you have been waiting for.....fireworks.



Generally, the sky should be partly cloudy and temperatures will dip into the upper 80s with high amounts of humidity.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

From Extreme Heat To Seasonal Weather

Boy ohhhhh Boy, last week was a hot box. Last Tuesday, the thermometer rose all the way to a new daily record of 106°. However, this past weekend, we were spoiled with plentiful clouds and some areas of light rain, which cooled us off dramatically. We actually stayed in the 80s all weekend long for a change.

Note the temperatures from the middle of last week and into the weekend....you would not think its summer around here:

A minor disturbance rolled in from the Gulf this past weekend initiating clouds cover with rain capping the temperatures in the 80s. But with some breaks in the cloud cover temperatures rebounded into the 90s this afternoon.

As far as the current pattern this week, temperatures should remain seasonal with a couple of light showers from time to time, especially along the coast.

High pressure anchored over the northern Gulf will keep the extreme heat away, and send some cloud cover our way due to a clockwise circulation off the water.

Humidity levels will be up this week, but temperatures stay steady in the middle 90s. As far as rain activity, it will be spotty. Therefore, a vast majority of the Brazos Valley will be dry this week. However, any showers that do crop up will drop a quick downpour.

Wednesday for Independence day, we will experience a lower chance of rain as cloud cover depleates for the afternoon. Same idea goes for Thursday, but more clouds come back at the end of the week and into the weekend with a few isolated showers.

Overall, nothing too excited here, but at least the extreme heat is not in our current forecast. Keep your eyes to the sky, weather is a miraculous phenomenon.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.