Severe Weather Potenital Overnight

Severe weather has been on everyone's mind over the past few days with the models in good agreement that a bout of violent weather will march across the Brazos Valley. This is part of a very large storm that entered from the Pacific Ocean a few days ago, dumping very heavy amounts of snow in the Rockies.

Here is the current set up for us tonight:

Low pressure centered in northeastern portions of Montana is the driving engine to the energy needed for these storms. Ahead of the cold front attached to the parent low, very warm and moist air has been parading in from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a powerful jet stream with very cold air aloft has added an extra punch to any developing storms. Not only does the jet stream add strong winds aloft to prolong the life of a thunderstorm, the cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere helps to further destabilize the atmosphere. In other words, when you add cold air on top of warm air at the surface, there is a much better potential for stronger storms.

Therefore, the best chance for severe weather with damaging wind, large hail and even an isolated tornado exists overnight ahead of the cold front. By tomorrow, when the cold front passes, a second kicker will allow rain to continue.

A low will break apart from the jet stream and "close off." This means that it will sit around our region and progress very slowly. With this additional energy in the upper levels, we will see several more showers Tuesday afternoon and even Wednesday morning.

Overall rainfall accumulations will be significant because the line of storms that move into the Brazos Valley will be very slow movers. Slow moving storms = a ton of rain. The following is the latest GEM computer model forecast for rainfall from tonight though tomorrow evening.

Everyone will see from 2-3" of rain with isolated amounts from 4-6". Yeah we will get soaked. Due to so much rain in a short period, flooding will be a concern. If you see standing water on a roadway, turn around and find a different route.

Heaviest rain will be from 12am to 9am tomorrow and isolated tornadoes are possible. I will keep you updated all night.

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