The Drought Is OVER!!!!

I am pleased to say that the drought of 2011 has been erased when the official US Drought Monitor was released at 7:30am this morning. What is remarkable about this improvement, is that it only took about 3 months to erase one of the worst natural disasters in this states history. That said, there are still many places in Texas considered to be in a drought, but the Brazos Valley is not under any official drought condition.

The following images are the official drought monitor that was put out this morning and the second image is a close in view of the Brazos Valley.

What you will notice is that we are still considered to be "abnormally dry." However, this is not considered to be within the drought categories. Also, look at the state as a whole. There is a stark difference between east Texas and west Texas. A lot of work remains for Big Bend and surrounding areas, but at least the state as a whole continues to pull out of this disaster.

The question is.....will we hop back into another drought? Tough to say right now, but one wonders because we crawled out of this one in such little time. What I can say is that a phenomenon called La Nina is weakening and is turning into a neutral phase. Basically, waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been much colder than average (La Nina). Now they will return to average temperatures (neutral phase) by the end of April. Therefore, if further warming occurs, then we will be in and El Nino phase. During the summer, this phase will favor average rainfall and average temperatures.

Overall, many questions still to be answered about the long term future, but we are not likely to fall into another prolonged dry spell for the next several months.

Finally, the rainfall we received yesterday and today, just helps us even more.

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Quiet For Now...Active By Next Week

Any synonym for beautiful describes out weather this past weekend and even early this week. Mornings were a touch cool, afternoons were warm, humidity levels were low and there was plenty of sunshine for everyone. High pressure has been sitting over us and is sluggishly moving eastbound. Due to this slow progression in the weather we will continue to experience this repetitive pattern. However, once this high moves far enough to the east, humidity will return, as well as the clouds, and even some rainfall.

At the moment, there is a trough sitting along the lee side of the Rockies that will eventually bring us greater rain chances by the end of the week.

In order for the Brazos Valley to see any rainfall, we need this trough (black dashed line) to move closer in. Troughs focuses air and allows it to lift into into the atmosphere. As air lifts, it cools, condenses, turns into clouds formations and eventually rain droplets will fall. If we do not have a "lifting mechanism" like a trough or a cold front, widespread rainfall cannot occur. By Thursday and Friday, this trough will be close enough to spark several isolated showers across the area. Overall, a washout is not in our near future.

On the other hand, models are indicating that the pattern will become more active by the end of the weekend and into next week. The jet stream will strengthen over the Pacific Ocean later this week and enter the west coast by the weekend.

At the moment, there is a storm in the Gulf of Alaska, but as the jet stream becomes more active, additional storms will ride along the upper level atmospheric highway.

The follwoing is an image of the upper level energy by late Sunday:

Notice the dip (trough) that lines up with the lee side of the Rockies and into the Texas panhandle. This is an indication that there is extra "spin" and lift in the atmosphere helping to destabalize the atmosphere. Additionally, a cold front will be ahead of this trough at the surface aiding in cloud and thunderstorm development.

Look at the jet stream level on Monday:

Due to this deep dig of the jet stream into the Plains, colder air is riding on top of the warmer air at the surface. This will further instaiblity and thus creating rain and thunderstorms. Furthermore, colder air from Canada will pour in following the passage of the front.

In the meantime, enjoy the current weather before changes occur. This remains several days out and I will keep you up to date if there are any differences in timing and if the forecast changes.

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Wonderful Weather This Weekend

Get out the rod and reel this weekend, its going to be perfect for fishing or any outdoor activity as a matter of fact. Lake levels are up and ready to go. Also, the vegitation is flush, so hitting the golf course will be a great idea as well.

Our latest upper level low is long gone and high pressure will dominate for the next several days. Therefore, the wind will be light, clouds will be absent, and humidity levels will be in check. You can expect warm afternoons with highs in the low to mid 80s, while the overnight periods will be cool as the murcury drops into the upper 50s.

All around a great weekend and I hope you all enjoy it.

Some humidity and clouds come back next week with a few light showers by Thursday. No big storms in our near future.

Flooding & Drought Update 3/22/2012

Flood Warnings continue for many rivers and streams in our area from the heavy rainfall earlier this week. The following information are for flooded rivers, their flood stage and forecast:

Little River @ Rockdale:
Flood Stage: 30 feet.
Forecast: Last observation showed the river level at 30.10 feet and minor flooding was occurring. Water is beginning to flow back into its banks.

Trinity River by Long Lake:
Flood Stage: 35 feet.
Forecast: Moderate flooding continues as the water level will rise to nearly 43 feet by Saturday.

Navasota River @ Easterly:
Flood Stage: 19 feet.
Forecast: As of this morning the river level was estimated at 24.93 feet with moderate flooding. Water is beginning to recede and should be below flood stage Saturday morning.

Navasota River @ Normangee:
Flood Stage: 15 feet.
Forecast: Water levels continue to rise with flooding. Levels should top out to 20 feet this evening.

Additionally, I want to pass along that we continue to pull farther from our deep drought. Latest Drought Monitor shows that the entire Brazos Valley is now in a "moderate" drought.

A moderate drought is the first stage of a drought and therefore, we are very close to concluding the long term devastation. However, we still need to conserve water whenever we can. Because as quickly as we are pulling out of this drought, it can easily come right back. However, its wonderful to see the dramatic improvement in such a short period of time.

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Latest Flooding Situation

Despite the sky being clear and the weather working in our favor, the intense rainfall we had Tuesday morning is still a player when it comes to our current flooding situation. Typically when there is very heavy rainfall for a broad area, flash flooding can occur during the storm, but in its wake, all the water that built up filters down creeks, streams and eventually rivers. In our case, there has been so much water in a short period of time that the rivers cant hold the excess supply. Therefore, flooding occurs.

Currently, there are several Flood Warnings for many our our counties, but the entire county that is under a warning is not totally flooded, just specific locations.

The following rivers are producing flooding:

Little River at Cameron:
-Flood stage for this location of Little River is 30 feet. Forecasts suggest that the river will rise to 33 feet by Thursday afternoon. This means in Cameron by Little River, minor flooding will occur tomorrow.

Navasota River at Easterly:
-Flood state for this location by the Navasota River is 19 feet. Guidance is showing that the river will rise to 26 feet by midnight tonight. Therefore, moderate flooding will occur along the Navasota River at Easterly.

Navasota River Near Normangee:
-There is going to be a threat for moderate flooding due to extra water flowing out of Lake Limestone.

Yegua Rover at Dime Box:
-Flood stage for this river at Dime Box is 10 feet. As of earlier this afternoon, the river levels were around 10.4 feet. Minor flooding is expected, especially around FM 141. Additionally, with more water flowing though, there will be some back up in West Yegua and Turkey Creek in Lee County. This means those creeks have the ability to flood as well.

If you see a road covered with water make sure to take an alternative route because you never know how deep that water really is. It does not take a lot of water to pick up and move a car. Be careful and I will keep you updated on my facebook and twitter page.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews.

Severe Weather Potenital Overnight

Severe weather has been on everyone's mind over the past few days with the models in good agreement that a bout of violent weather will march across the Brazos Valley. This is part of a very large storm that entered from the Pacific Ocean a few days ago, dumping very heavy amounts of snow in the Rockies.

Here is the current set up for us tonight:

Low pressure centered in northeastern portions of Montana is the driving engine to the energy needed for these storms. Ahead of the cold front attached to the parent low, very warm and moist air has been parading in from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a powerful jet stream with very cold air aloft has added an extra punch to any developing storms. Not only does the jet stream add strong winds aloft to prolong the life of a thunderstorm, the cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere helps to further destabilize the atmosphere. In other words, when you add cold air on top of warm air at the surface, there is a much better potential for stronger storms.

Therefore, the best chance for severe weather with damaging wind, large hail and even an isolated tornado exists overnight ahead of the cold front. By tomorrow, when the cold front passes, a second kicker will allow rain to continue.

A low will break apart from the jet stream and "close off." This means that it will sit around our region and progress very slowly. With this additional energy in the upper levels, we will see several more showers Tuesday afternoon and even Wednesday morning.

Overall rainfall accumulations will be significant because the line of storms that move into the Brazos Valley will be very slow movers. Slow moving storms = a ton of rain. The following is the latest GEM computer model forecast for rainfall from tonight though tomorrow evening.

Everyone will see from 2-3" of rain with isolated amounts from 4-6". Yeah we will get soaked. Due to so much rain in a short period, flooding will be a concern. If you see standing water on a roadway, turn around and find a different route.

Heaviest rain will be from 12am to 9am tomorrow and isolated tornadoes are possible. I will keep you updated all night.

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Huge Storm Early Next Week

Feast or famine is the name of the game in the Brazos Valley. Its great to see improvement on the drought, but when we do, we experience major storms that create severe weather and massive flooding. This next storm is no different. Remember, we are several days away from our next event, so things can change from now and into early next week.....

Here is the set up. Our next weather maker remains in the Pacific Ocean, but its beginning to make a move inland to the Pacific Northwest.

What you are seeing in this image is called the "water vapor imagery." This is an image that is taken from satellites thousands of miles above the Earth's surface. The water vapor is only a depiction of the moisture content in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, not the surface. We use this to look at jet stream patterns, and even low pressure cells in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Right along the coastline of British Columbia, Canada is our upper low that is the main engine to the rain train that will eventually come here to the Brazos Valley.

Additionally, notice the dip in the jet stream, just off the coast of California. This is a sing of things to come, because this lets me know that this trough will continue to deepen and intensify the overall storm. Overall, the storm is a slow mover, but it will really pack a punch with a ton of rain and even dumping several feet of snow to the Rockie Mountains.

Lets move into the end of the weekend and Monday to give you a computer model on the intensification of the jet stream and its overall orientation.....

The grey area is the jet stream, or pocket of fastest winds about 35,000 feet above the surface. Note how there is a major trough that extends from the central Rockies to the Plains. Furthermore, the Brazos Valley is on the eastern edge of this pocket of intense winds. Because of this, there will be several thunderstorms that crop up on Monday and Tuesday that will have the ability to strengthen rapidly and even rotate due to the swift winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, severe weather will be a good possibility for Texas and Oklahoma.

That's only one side of the story. Due to the deep digging of the trough, we will be able to grab a rich feed of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and even from the Pacific Ocean. Any storms that form will have the ability to send down very heavy rainfall, heightening our flood threat.

As of right now, the computer models are indicating several inches of rain falling all across the Southern Plains early next week.

This is just an early computer model and this bulls eye can shift, but this can give you a feel that a stormy period will set up here.

At the moment, it looks like from Monday evening though Tuesday we will have strong thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. The overall system will move out on Wednesday clearing us out and beginning another tranquil set up for the remainder of the week.

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Minor Changes To Hurricane Scale

Despite it being Winter technically, tropical air has surged into a majority of Texas and even parts of the Northern Plains. We are close enough to Spring as the equinox will take place on March 20th, which is next Tuesday. Nonetheless, Hurricane season is around the corner, starting on the 1st of June.

These tropical monsters have been known to soak the Brazos Valley with heavy rains. However, there has been an absence of tropical activity since Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast. Here at KAGS-HD, we will make sure to keep you ahead of the storms.

Anyway, there have been some minor changes to the Saffir-Simpson Scale (hurricane strength index) I want to pass along.

The following image illustrates the current scale:

Category 1 and category 2 hurricanes will remain the same. The changes will be made as of May 15, 2012 to the wind speeds of major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).

Here are the new wind speeds for the following categories:

Category 3: 111-129 mph; 96-112 kn, 178-208 km/hr

Category 4: 130-156 mph, 113-136 kn, 209-251 km/hr

Category 5: 157+ mph, 137+ kn, 252+ km/hr

Very minor corrections will be made, but it will be interesting to see how these how these little differences affect the category of each storm this coming up season.

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From A Wet Streak To A Consistent Pattern

A huge wall of water poured on the Brazos Valley this past weekend just adding to the rain tally and subtracting our drought. Taking a look at this year and comparing it to 2011, its like day and night. From a year that was so tough to see any precipitation to one where we now expect huge rain storms. Additionally, when you think about the storms we have had this year, most of them come in a concentrated period of time. Furthermore, each storm dumps several inches of rain at a time.

There are two angles you can take with the storms of 2012. 1) More rain = we pull our of the drought faster. 2) So much rain at once = more flooding. Either way, we need rain and we still need more. However, the best way to pull out of a drought is in moderation.

Nonetheless, the numbers this year are impressive. So far to date, Eaterwood Airport officially picked up 16.07" (we had 19.97" all of last year) of rain since January 1st. This time last year, Easterwood only had 4.09". Also, for the month of March College Station received 4.01" so far. In March 2011, College Station reported only 0.61".

Brenham so far is having its third wettest start to a year with 13.43". 1932 was the wettest start to a year in Brenham with 17.88".

Now, we are going to switch from a streaky pattern to one that is more consistent. As our latest storm departs, a burly body of high pressure will sit over the western Atlantic Ocean and drive our weather this week and into the weekend.

Air flows clockwise around high pressure and with the position of the high, Canadian air will not affect us. Therefore, we will remain above average for the time being. Additionally, notice how the air will be coming from the southeast for us.

Air at the surface will have added juice from the Gulf of Mexico keeping it a bit muggy. Additionally, energy from the sun in combination with warm air will aid in the development of a few pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon. We will not see any washouts, but several areas will see a little bit of rain this week. Also, due to the extra moisture in play, fog will develop each morning. Its a consistent pattern, but make sure to keep the umbrella in the back of the car just in case.

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Flood Safety Week

From March 12-16, the National Weather Service is marking this as Flood Safety Week. The following is my previous write up about flooding and tips you can use to stay safe during the storm.

Despite all of the attention gearing towards large hail, lightning, extreme wind, and even tornadoes, flooding happens to be one of the more dangerous elements that severe thunderstorms can produce. When you look at each type of severe weather independently, flooding happens to cause more deaths than other related hazards.

One of the contributing factors is our under estimate of how powerful water can be. It only takes about 6 inches of moving water to knock over an average sized adult. Only 24 inches of rushing water can pick up a car and move it. Very small amounts of water can cause hazards that will generate mud slides, erode solid rock, shape shift rivers, and even destroy houses. Unfortunately, most deaths when it comes to flooding are those that are caught in their cars and drown.

However, there are some very simple tips you can use in the event of flooding or if flooding is forecasted to threaten your area. When meteorologists at that National Weather Service (NWS) foresee a large area to be affected by flooding, a FLOOD WATCH would be posted.

When flooding conditions are expected to occur or are imminent, a FLOOD or FLASH FLOOD WARNING will be posted for specific areas, namely certain roads, streams, rivers, or urban locations.

Best advice is to stay off the roads and especially away from those areas that are flooded. However, in the event that you are driving and you see a road covered with water, NEVER drive though it. You never know how deep that water is and as explained above, it does not take a lot of water to pick up your car. Make sure to steer away from a water covered road and take an alternate route to your destination.

The NWS says: "Turn Around, Dont Drown." Simple words of advice that can save your life. Additionally, if you are aware that an area is expecting to have flooding conditions, do not park your car near a stream, or low elevation (dip) where water can collect easily. Finally, seek higher ground in the event of flooding.

I hope these tips will help you the next time flooding conditions are expected for your area. Keep it safe and here at KAGS-HD we will always keep you ahead of the changing weather elements.

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