Unsettled Week In Store

What a downright gorgeous weekend we had across the Brazos Valley. The sun was out, the birds were singing and the temperatures were just right. No matter what season we are in, when you have tranquil weather and temperatures in the low to mid 60s, in my opinion that is perfection.

As we enter a new week, a fresh weather pattern has shown up. Expect even warmer air with additional moisture to appear all week, plus some rain falling from the sky. Early this week, rain showers and thunderstorms will be scattered as opposed to widespread. Therefore, each episode will be short lived and there will be breaks in between.

Lets show you the overall picture.

A broad region of high pressure in the Carolinas is working together with a low in Colorado. Note that air around high pressure flows clockwise, where air around low pressure flow counter-clockwise. Not only will this bring the Brazos Valley a wind direction from the south, the breezes are quite busy. Gusts over the next few days will approach 25mph at times.

A closer view will show you the set up here in the Lone Star State.

At the low-levels (or the surface), moisture is gathering along areas from Central Texas and points to the coastline. A majority of the moisture is coming from the Gulf of Mexico, and some is being transported from the Pacific Ocean. Due to all of this added moisture, it will feel a bit humid at times, and temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to near 80. Is this winter?.....I don't think so.

Having moisture at the low levels is good an all, however in order to get organized clouds and precipitation form the clouds, you need a lifting mechanism. Lifting mechanisms can come in several forms: Fronts, body of low pressure, topography (mountains), or even surface heating. These different sources of "lifting" help to raise the air, cool it and condense it into clouds. When there are enough water particles or ice crystals that generate within the cloud, then they can fall as precipitation.

In our scenario, we have a disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere (or 500mb level) which is aiding our lift.

Overnight and tomorrow, this disturbance will cruise across the eastern half of the state and spread in a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, most of this energy will move off to our east. Overall, this is not a big amount of rain, but rain nonetheless.

Once the weekend gets closer, computer models are hinting at a long sustained rain event that could washout our weekend. Still many days out and the forecast can change. I will keep you updated here on the blog and on my other pages.

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Have a wonderful day.