Unsettled Week In Store

What a downright gorgeous weekend we had across the Brazos Valley. The sun was out, the birds were singing and the temperatures were just right. No matter what season we are in, when you have tranquil weather and temperatures in the low to mid 60s, in my opinion that is perfection.

As we enter a new week, a fresh weather pattern has shown up. Expect even warmer air with additional moisture to appear all week, plus some rain falling from the sky. Early this week, rain showers and thunderstorms will be scattered as opposed to widespread. Therefore, each episode will be short lived and there will be breaks in between.

Lets show you the overall picture.

A broad region of high pressure in the Carolinas is working together with a low in Colorado. Note that air around high pressure flows clockwise, where air around low pressure flow counter-clockwise. Not only will this bring the Brazos Valley a wind direction from the south, the breezes are quite busy. Gusts over the next few days will approach 25mph at times.

A closer view will show you the set up here in the Lone Star State.

At the low-levels (or the surface), moisture is gathering along areas from Central Texas and points to the coastline. A majority of the moisture is coming from the Gulf of Mexico, and some is being transported from the Pacific Ocean. Due to all of this added moisture, it will feel a bit humid at times, and temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to near 80. Is this winter?.....I don't think so.

Having moisture at the low levels is good an all, however in order to get organized clouds and precipitation form the clouds, you need a lifting mechanism. Lifting mechanisms can come in several forms: Fronts, body of low pressure, topography (mountains), or even surface heating. These different sources of "lifting" help to raise the air, cool it and condense it into clouds. When there are enough water particles or ice crystals that generate within the cloud, then they can fall as precipitation.

In our scenario, we have a disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere (or 500mb level) which is aiding our lift.

Overnight and tomorrow, this disturbance will cruise across the eastern half of the state and spread in a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, most of this energy will move off to our east. Overall, this is not a big amount of rain, but rain nonetheless.

Once the weekend gets closer, computer models are hinting at a long sustained rain event that could washout our weekend. Still many days out and the forecast can change. I will keep you updated here on the blog and on my other pages.

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Have a wonderful day.

Where Is Winter????

We are several days out from February which can bring in some nasty cold spells and blinding snowstorms. However, the 2011-2012 edition of winter has been anything but that. Ski resorts are hurting in the Rockies as well as the Appalachians. In the Northeast, the white ground following a snowfall is quickly erased by either a rain storm or warm air. La-Nina has had it hand in all of this, but one of the biggest factors in our "spring-like" winter can be pointed to the NAO, or the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Take a few seconds and glean at the following image. These are temperatures across the U.S. as of 4pm CST, on this Friday, January 27th.

Yes, there is a noticeable difference in temperatures from the southern tier of the U.S. to the northern half. On the other hand, areas such as Billings, or even Boston are saying, "Hey, this is not so bad. We can go out with t-shirts on." Additionally, if you have closely been following the weather this winter season, any cold spell has been brief and there have not been many of them.

The main reason, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). This is a weather phenomenon that was discovered in the 1920's. Therefore, we have not been observing this for long, but every year that passes we gain a better understanding on what is can do to our weather.

Main points to know here is that the NAO is an oscillation between the position and strength of a body of low-pressure around Iceland, as well as a body of high-pressure in the Azores. When talking about the strength of pressures, wind will be a factor. If there is a large difference between these pressures, then wind speed will increase. On the flip side, if the differences are small, wind speeds will be decreased. Finally, when talking about the winds with the NAO, we are talking about winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

There is a positive and negative phase to the NAO. During the positive phase, the pressure differences between the Azores High and Icelandic Low are vastly different. Therefore, the winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the United States are stronger than average. Due to these strong upper level winds, cold air built up at the surface in northern Canada will not have an easy time heading south. Therefore, cold spells will not happen that often and they will not last long, just like this winter.

During the negative phase, the exact opposite happens. Pressure differences are smaller, and the winds in the upper levels are weaker. Therefore, cold air locked up in Canada will be able to freely shuttle south and stick around for a while. The next image can give you an indication of what each phase looks like.

Image taken from Wikipedia

The tough part about this phenomenon is that we can only forecast this well only about two weeks out. Despite long term seasonal forecasting, the NAO and its sister the AO  (Arctic Oscillation) can be wild cards.

Just to give you a frame of reference in how warm its been across the US this month: Boston is about 5.2° above average, Rexburg Idaho is about 7.0° above average, and International Falls (one of the coldest places in the US) Minnesota is approximately 9.9° above average. These are quite impressive numbers. However, February is a new month, and with a new month could come some new weather. We will keep you posted here on KAGS-HD.

For additional local weather go to www.facebook.com/KAGSweather, or @KAGSweather on Twitter.

Brazos Valley Tornado Outbreak

Yesterday was one of the most active mornings that the Brazos Valley has seen in quite some time. Early in the morning, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issued a Tornado Watch for the entire viewing area for the potential of tornadic thunderstorms. Approximately 4:30am is when the first Tornado Warning was issued from the National Weather Service in Robertson and Milam counties. From that point on many storms entered the Brazos Valley and the situation became violent. A multitude of Tornado Warnings were issued in Burleson, Washington, Brazos, Grimes and Madison counties.

From 4:30am to 9am was when the most destructive storms came though. The following is a radar image from 7:30am yesterday morning.

Note how we did not have any isolated supercells that typically bring us tornadoes. We had a broad line of storms with destructive winds on its front side. This is known as a bow echo. The line from Leon county to Washington county bows out. At the apex of the bow, which in this image is over Brenham, is where the strongest winds are located. Reports showed gusts to 70 mph, but I would not be surprised if there were gusts near 85mph. Nonetheless, this was a very electric storm that packed a punch. In addition, within this thick line of destructive storms were mini rotations that prompted the Tornado Warnings.

Throughout the morning, from what I could glean on the radar imagery, there could have been as many as 6 weak tornadoes in our area. The National Weather Service needs to survey the damage in each warned area before concluding a tornado touched down. At the moment, the storm over Brenham has been officially named tornadic. The tornado was ranked as an EF-0 with a 50 yard width, and a 2.5 mile path. An EF-0 is the weakest class on the Enhanced Fujita scale, but no matter what, this tornado caused a fair amount of damage. The following image indicates the rest of the scale and how high winds need to be for each classification.

However, there were many other possible tornadoes that need to be surveyed, and the National Weather Service should come out with that report tonight. Besides the Brenham tornado, there were storms that were quite concerning.

The possible tornado that originated in Somerville and ripped though Snook, College Station, and central Grimes County. On radar, it looked like this possible tornado was on the ground for quite some time. Again, this is not official yet. Another storm looked impressive on radar in eastern Washington County, that passed just to the south of Navasota.

NEW: Perliminary reports indicate that the Burleson County storm produced an EF-1 Tornado around Deanville and south of Caldwell. Also, two brief EF-0 tornadoes touched down around Huntsville. Finally, just in from the National Weather Service, a tornado was confirmed in Madison County, and is classified as an EF-0.


Other storms could have dropped weak tornadoes in Grimes and Madison counties as the following image indicates.

Interesting to note that in Madisonville, there was a report of an 18-wheeler on I-45 that was blown over due to the wind.

Overall, there were no injuries reported and a well needed soaking of rain helped to put a slight dent into the long term drought. What a morning we had, but all is clear. The weather the next several days will be great with a healthy warm up next week.

Thank you to everyone that stuck with KAGS-HD for the entire event. We appreciate each and every viewer and we will always keep you safe before, during and after the storm.

For more weather information you can log onto facebook: www.facebook.com/KAGSweatther and our twitter page: @KAGSweather.

Severe Threat Not Over Yet, More Overnight

Thunderstorms that splashed the Brazos Valley this morning was just a taste of whats to come overnight. As much as 2.0" of rain was reported around Snook earlier today. Additionally, I had one comment form a viewer who was eating at Jose's Mexican Restaurant and noticed the hail falling outside. They told me that it looked like snow because it covered the ground and built up on her car. Here is an image that was emailed to me this afternoon that really illustrates what we saw.

Yup, you can literally scoop up the hail and put it in your freezer for safe keeping. Most hail today was on a line from Millican to East Bryan, and into Kurten. However, our severe weather threat is far from over.

Low pressure that is developing to our south has a warm and cold front extending from its center.

This afternoon we had what was called an "overrunning" event. We are ahead of the warm front where air at the surface was relatively cooler then the air behind the front. Therefore, the warm air from the south rode up and over the colder air at the surface. This created lift and formed precipitation. Typically "overruning" events are fairly light. On the other hand, the upper levels were unstable and storms broke out. In meteorological terms, "elevated convection" was the culprit.

What we will see overnight and into tomorrow morning is this warm front passing though the Brazos Valley and we will be in the "warm sector," which is the area between the warm and cold front.

One of the reasons why we point out this area is due to copious amounts of instability which helps to crop up thunderstorms. Additionally, winds in this area are turning in many different directions from the surface to the upper levels. In other words, the air is "twisting" at different altitudes. Therefore, storms that generate have the possibility of rotating which can lead to long lived cells and even tornadoes.

From the computer information I gathered, there are a lot of the elements there for rotating storms overnight. Question that needs to be answered is, how many of these will produce tornadoes? That will be a hard one to answer until the storms actually form. Severe weather is a waiting game and something that needs to be monitored closely.

Overall, you need to know that more storms will form overnight and tomorrow morning. Some of them will be severe and an isolated tornado is not out of the question. Also, heavy rain could produce flash flooding in some locations. The time frame between midnight tonight and 12pm tomorrow will be watched with a close eye.

I will be here to monitor the situation on-air with KAGS-HD on channel 6, 23.1, and 730. Furthermore, there will be updates on facebook: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather as well as twitter: @KAGSweather.

Please submit any reports you have. Thank you and have a great evening.

  

Blazing In Texas, Polar Up North. Plus, 2011 9th Warmest on Record, Globally

Sunshine that broke out this afternoon along with a swift southwest wind, boosted temperatures well into the 70s. Several locations in central and south Texas climbed into the 80s. A hot one indeed, and the heat is not really going any where anytime soon. There will be a few weak cold fronts that slide in, but temperatures will remain well above average.

Notice the temperatures across the Lone Star State from earlier this afternoon:

Hottest air today extended from Laredo to Killeen. Though the heat here is a big headline, colder air is not too far away. 50s in Oklahoma is not too shabby, but glance farther north.

Not only are is the actual air temperature below zero in several communities around the Dakotas, wind chills are much colder. Winds blowing near 80mph at times drove wind chills in the Northern Plains 30 to 40 degrees below 0.

Between the cold and warm air lies the jet stream.

Due to the flat orientation of the jet, the core of the cold air will stay locked up to the north of us. If there were a large dip into Texas, then the gates of the Arctic would open up. For right now, this is how the jet will stay, allowing warm air to stick around.

However, long term computer models are suggesting that a closed low (or a low-pressure system that is not connected to the jet stream) will develop in Northern Mexico and produce significant rain here Tuesday until early Thursday. Still to early to call, but we will keep our eyes on this development in the KAGS-HD Weather Center.

Aside from the rain, the heat has been the main headline here. Not only in Texas, but all across the world. NASA recently analyzed all the data from 2011 and has officially noted that last year was the 9th warmest year on record globally. To read this article click here.

Know that records have only been kept since 1880, so this only reflects the past 131 years of data. The Earth is much older then that, but the more data we can get, the better we can understand the worlds climate and cycles. Furthermore, NASA indicates that since 2000, nine of the ten warmest years have occurred since records have been kept. Staggering numbers! Plus, concentration of carbon-dioxide levels continue to rise.

Climatology and Meteorology are sciences that continue to strive in understanding the overall picture. Despite our eyes and hears focusing on "records," improvements are being made because these fields are not perfect. Every time data is recorded, questions begin to be answered. We are a long way from knowing actual long term facts, but everyday we work on the challenges, the solutions get closer.

Warm End To The Week, A Few Little Bumps

When you look at the average temperatures for this area in the middle of January we should hit the low 60s during the afternoon. Our official high today was 61, which is right on target. However, warm air spoiled up the past few days. Since we were used to well above average temperatures recently, today felt a bit chilly.

If you are not a fan with the "cold" air, Mother Nature will deliver in another warm package to us. Yup, temperatures the remainder of the week and into next week will be around the upper 60s and low to mid 70s.

The patter is a progressive one, but most of the weather will travel north of us.

Note where the jet stream is, well to the north of us and this will be the way the weather will hold for several days. You can look at the jet stream as a highway, or a path for disturbances. Areas of low pressure don't always take this roadway, but most of the time they do. Activity in terms of rain and snow will be away from the Lone Star State in the short term.

Additionally, the jet stream can be looked at as a boundary between cold air and warm air. Due to the position of this feature we are on the warm side of things.

However, there will be some dip in the jet stream from time to time by the weekend, adding in a slim chance of rain. With this set up, no large scale storms are expected at this time.

Fog will become an obstacle tomorrow morning, and will appear each morning right into the weekend. Thickest fog will likely occur Friday and Saturday mornings.

Overall, despite the lack in rainfall (which is what we need), enjoy the weather, because other locations across the lower 48 are FREEZING!

"Kona Storm" In The Pacific Northwest

In Hawaii, the term Kona is used all the time, but it has two drastic meanings. If someone were to say "Kona Weather," then the weather outside is beautiful. On the other side of the coin if someone said, "Kona Storm," then the storm is going to be vicious. A storm that is currently, impacting the Pacific Northwest will be one for the memory books. Technically, this will not be a "Kona Storm," but I want to give you the impression that this is something the state of Washington has not seen in decades. For the true details of a Kona Storm, you can click here.

Not only will areas such as Seattle and Tacoma see a fair amount of snow, this storm will last for several days. If you look at the Water Vapor image from earlier this afternoon, you will see that the moisture from this storm stretches a long way.

What you are seeing in the image above, is the water vapor in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Green colors denotes rich moisture, black illustrating low levels of water vapor, and brown showing very dry areas in the mid and upper levels. Note that the center of low pressure in the upper levels sits in the north central Pacific Ocean, well away from land. Also, there is a huge ribbon of rich moisture extending from the low, adding fuel to the fire. What this picture indicates is that this storm will be around for a long time and will produce copious amounts of precipitation to the western United States.

In addition, very cold air that built up in Canada moved into Washington making most of the precipitation that falls in the form of snow and ice. The following image shows the cold air that was locked up in Canada, some of the coldest we have seen all season.

If this storm came a week or so ago, this would be a rain event for a majority of Washington, excluding the mountains. Now that cold air is locked in place, major snows will fall and when you get a lot of snow falling all at once, major problems will occur and this is why this storm is creating headlines.

Already this morning and afternoon, snow has been flying around Seattle and for the higher terrain. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.

The radar image does not look too impressive, but as the storm evolves and matures, snowfall rates will increase and some of the mountains will see quite a bit of the white stuff.

Here is one model projection of snowfall for Washington over a 12 hour period, tonight into tomorrow afternoon. These numbers are quite impressive.

Yup, that's right, there will be a few locations that experience over 40 inches of snow in a 12 hour period. Due to this, the National Weather Service issued Avalanche Warnings for parts of the Cascade Mountains. Avalanches can cover entire highways, and even houses. Bottom line, a dangerous scenario is taking shape for this part of the country. By the time all is said an done, close to 100 inches of snow could fall in the Cascades.

Interesting Fact: In the image above, this computer model is putting out 41" of snow for Paradise. Did you know that from Feb. 19, 1971 to Feb. 18, 1972, Paradise, Washington recorded 1,224.5" of snow? That is no typo my friends.

Like A Midsummer Night's Dream

"The true beginning of our end." A Midsummer Night’s Dream Quote. Act v. Scene 1.

Throwing out a little Shakespeare to get us in the mood for the forecast. As the above quote denotes, with a twist of the weather illustrates that a cold front that will move into the Brazos Valley will be the beginning to the end of the very warm air.....for now.

A south wind gusting to near 35 mph today not only brought in warmer air, but humid air as well. Dew points this afternoon reached the 60s. When you stepped outside, you could feel the extra moisture stirring around. However, if you are not a fan of this warm weather for January, a cold front will come to the rescue tomorrow, not only to cool us off a bit, but to slash the humidity in the air.

Due to the abundance of cloud cover overhead, we will stay very warm overnight and fairly muggy with continuous south winds. You could also say that it will feel like A Midsummer Night's Dream.

Just before midnight, the cold front will remain to our northwest:

Clouds remain in place, and as far as any precipitation, there is not enough instability for widespread rain or thunderstorms. Several light showers or sprinkles will pop up from time to time, but not much to write home about. Also, remember, we are ahead of the front and this is one reason why we will be warm overnight.

By noon Tuesday, the front approaches and begins to pass by the Brazos Valley:

Just after we spike temperatures into the low 70s Tuesday midday, the front will sweep though and open up the doors to cooler, drier air. Plus, any light showers we see will be pushed away, as well at the cloud cover. Overall, the high temperature will be met around noon and the wind will shift from the north, beginning the cooling process.

This body of cold air is not too impressive and will not last long across out region. Expect the coolest day to be Wednesday with highs near 60 degrees. Just like a blink of an eye, temperatures turn right back around in the upper 60s to low 70s closer to the weekend.

Warmer MLK Weekend Ahead

Hello everyone. I will make this a quick update for the weekend. Fairly uneventful with high pressure taking the reins. Sunshine in full force for Saturday with a light south to southwest wind that will help boost the temperatures into the 60s and eventually th 70s by MLK Day.

Exact Trak takes the high to the east of the region Saturday and with a clockwise flow around high pressure, we get the warm south winds.

Additionally, under bodies of high pressure, air sinks. Therefore, clouds will be absent for the first part of the extended holiday weekend. Energy from California will swing by Sunday and kick off a few isolated showers, mainly to our east. Not much here, just a few light passing showers. Overall, a mostly dry weekend. Showers exit on MLK Day where temps reach the 70s.

Also, if you are heading towards the beaches around Galveston here is your forecast:

Enjoy the weekend and keep the umbrella handy just incase a quick shower pops up.

Stay tuned with KAGS-HD for the latest. Facebook: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather and Twitter: @KAGSweather

Hard Freeze Tonight, But How Cold?

One of the hardest part about being a meteorologist is using computer information as guidance. A fair amount of the time, they are great guidelines, but not to be used verbatim. One way we can tell if a model will steer us in the right direction is if it initializes well. In other words, if the model predicted the current weather well, then its future forecast will do well. However, if there is a drastic difference between the model and what is really going on outside, a meteorologist needs to dig much deeper to find a solution for the forecast.

Toady's dilemma has to do with the overnight temperatures. In order to get a frigid night there are three main ingredients; a clear sky, dry air, and light winds. Despite very high winds this morning, high pressure will crest in central Texas tonight and calm the wind. We are all go for a light wind. Also, there are high thin clouds that will float overhead. Therefore the sky will not be completely clear, but a fair amount of the solar radiation from this afternoon will escape into the atmosphere. The big question is with the dry air.

Computer models predicted that dew points will be in the mid to upper teens this afternoon. Actually, the dew points were near 10° if not in the single digits. Since the air was much drier than predicted, this leads me to believe that the temperature will be lower than the actual computer forecast.

Note: The drier the air, the less energy air needs to cool and warm. At night, after the sun goes down, a dry air mass will cool rapidly, as opposed to one that is moist (more humid).

Overall, the air is much direr than predicted, and from what I learned in the classroom, the temperature should drop lower than what the computers illustrate.

Here is an example of our in house computer model of the low temperatures tonight:

The above image shows temperatures in the 30s and upper 20s. Based on how the atmosphere is set up right now and where it will be tonight, I very much disagree with these numbers. Dew points will be in the single numbers and lower teens tonight. This means that the temperature could fall at most to these values. With a few clouds overhead, the air will not cool as efficiently. In other words, temperatures will likely be a bit above the dew point.

What I am trying to spell out here is that tonight's forecast is a tough one. Computers have been way off, and my personal predictions may not shape up, but its an educational guess based on many parameters.

The following image displays my current forecast for tonight, which is much different than the model forecast.

This is the toughest part of meteorology when your forecast is drastically different than the guidance. Its all a learning game. If I am way off tonight, then this will be a learning experience.

Make sure to wrap the pipes tonight, get the plants and the pets in too. Warm up with a hot cup of tea.

Finally, A Real Cold Front

Over the past several weeks, any cold front that passed though the Brazos Valley was fairly weak and tended to fizzle out. However, there is a true "Blue Norther" (or a cold front that will largely swing temperatures) to our northwest. This front will barrel down the Rockies and eventually slice though the Lone Star State.
Here is the current set up with this front:

The actual front is located from the Dakotas, down though California. Additionally, what makes this front different than the previous ones is that the air behind it is much colder. Plus, the front will make a full passage though the state, rather than grazing us with a minor blast of cooler air. At the moment, temperatures in northern British Columbia and Alaska are well below zero, which is an indication that it will get much colder here. It will not get that cold in Texas, as the air will moderate during its travel south. Nonetheless, we will feel some big changes.

By late Wednesday and into Thursday, the front will pierce though and the wind will begin to howl out of the northwest.

Gusts will reach 20-25mph at times early Thursday as the colder air rushes in. Highs will be slashed from the upper 60s to near 70 on Wednesday, to the low 50s for highs. During the overnight on Thursday, you will notice a huge difference with a widespread freeze as temperatures plummet into the 20s.

Furthermore, since this is a deep layer of cold air, it will take a few days to bounce back up into the 60s again.

I will keep you updated on facebook: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather and on Twitter: @KAGSweather 

Active Morning Leading Into A Colder Spell

Severe weather swept across parts of the Brazos Valley this morning with a Tornado Warning even issued for eastern Madison County around 4:50am. Good news is that there was no official sighting of a tornado despite indications on Doppler Radar. The only damaged reported in our viewing area were a few tree limbs that fell in northeastern Brazos County along Osr and Fountain Swiss Road.

A majority of the severe weather was to our southeast. Locations near Houston, Sugar Land, and Rosenburg got hit hard with torrential rainfall, 1.5" sized hail, frequent lightening, gusts to 60mph and even a sighting of a funnel cloud along Grand Parkway near Sugar Land. The following is an image of the radar this afternoon following the most intense storms:

Severe weather that took place in the morning turned more into a flooding event to our southeast. Storms traveled over the same areas for hours allowing rainfall accumulations to reach 4 inches in spots near Houston. When storms move over the same areas time and time again, we call this "training."

A low in the upper levels has provided the necessary energy to generate storms on its eastern flank, but on the back side, air is coming down from the north and northwest. The air is cold enough that snow is flying in West Texas:

Several inches of snow is expected from Midland/Odessa to the Concho Valley this afternoon. We will not see any snow here in the Brazos Valley, but this gives you a good illustration of how powerful this storm is. Additionally, this whole even evolved in a matter of hours from Sunday night to Monday morning. Another indication of its fury with rapid intensification.

Severe weather threat is over for us and showers will be around for the rest of the day and into early tomorrow. Beyond this storm that will depart Tuesday morning, a new cold front will arrive late Wednesday and really change the weather up here.

Recently, cold fronts have not been efficient in delivering the colder air from Canada. However, this one will. Here is a look at temperatures to our northwest this afternoon:

Note the darker blues that are draining down the Rockies and into West Texas. This is the first time in a while that we have seen a plunge of cold air like this. Additionally, when the front arrives, it will drag the air from the Rockies, plus from Canada to lock in the chill. Daytime highs will only reach the low 50s, where overnight lows by the end of the week will touch the mid to upper 20s.

All in all, it was a great sight to see rain, but the flooding around Houston was not the best. I will keep you updated here, on facebook: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather and on Twitter: @KAGSweather.

First Big Storm of 2012

Since we turned the page to 2012, the weather has been fairly tranquil. This pattern will last for the next few days, right though the weekend. Overall temperatures will be a good 10 to 13 degrees above average with a fair amount of sunshine. However, late Sunday night and into Monday, atmospheric ingredients will come together and evolve our first big wet weather maker of the year.

Recently, when cold front have passed the Brazos Valley, they tend to be weak and not pack much of a punch of cold air. For example, the front that came though yesterday, only knocked temperatures down a by a single degree. Plus, there was no moisture, therefore, all we saw where a few passing clouds with no precipitation.

This front will be a lot different by Monday morning. The current image will show you the surface set up:

In typical fashion we have a cold front to our north and west. Behind the front, its drier and cooler, and ahead of the front, its warmer with more moisture. However, when this front enters the Brazos Valley early Monday, it will slow down and stall. Additionally, a developing area of low pressure will ride along this front to kick in an abundance of lift and energy. Therefore, clouds will quickly develop and yes, widespread rain will be the story.

Here is how everything will change by Monday:

The low pressure center will ride along the front and produce heavy rainfall. At the moment, computer information is outputting 1-2" of rain for East Texas. This storm has yet to take shape, and there are several more days for changes in the computer models. Right now, the time frame of Monday and early Tuesday will be the best chance for wet weather. Furthermore, if the timing shifts, the rain amounts will reflect the changes.

By Tuesday, rain will shut off in the afternoon and we begin to dry out before the next cold front arrives with a cold shot from Canada.

We will keep you up to date with the latest information here at KAGS-HD.

2011, A Year of Extremes

For most, the drought takes the top spot when it comes to the weather across the entire state from 2011. Additionally, searing heat blazed the southern Plains with all time records broken for many cities. For farmers, 2011 was a year to forget as many wet weather systems steered away from the Brazos Valley. 2012 will be a year to rejuvenate the dry soil and brown appearance to the ground that was once flush with a vivid green color.

Following analysis of the climactic data at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 2011 is down in the record books at the warmest year on record. FYI, records have been kept since 1902 in College Station. When all of the high as well as low temperatures were put together and averages out, College Station on average was 71.6° for 2011. This bests 1993, the second warmest on record, by 0.7°. February 19th was the coldest day with a low of 19°, and we hit 109° twice, on August 27th and 28th.

Speaking of heat, the six month period between March 1st and August 31st was the hottest on record with an average temperature of 80.9°.

Besides the lack of chill, rain was lacking as well. 2011 finishes up as the third driest on record with an official yearly total of 19.97" liquid. 1917 was the driest for a calendar year with only 16.66", and 1988 was the second driest with 17.80". For prospective, our average rainfall in a year is 40.06".

Additionally, the meteorological spring and summer periods (March 1st to August 31st) were the driest on record with 7.26" of liquid for that six month period.

All in all, it was quite an interesting year. We will keep you updated with all of the weather events that take shape in 2012 here at KAGS-HD.