Thursday, December 27, 2012

Looks More Like London England

Old chap, today was perfect for an afternoon tea and some crumpets. Quite a chilly, drizzly day that only the Queen of England would enjoy. Yes, the weather outside had an appearance of London, England, or maybe Seattle, Washington.

Despite the sunny start, low clouds and drizzle engulfed the Brazos Valley quickly this afternoon. A warm front off the Gulf of Mexico slowly lifted north and helped to create a process called "overrunning." Typically, these type of events occur with mid-latitude cyclones, but can occur on a much smaller scale as well. To simply put it, warm air is moving on top of colder air at the surface, hence, overrunning.

Early this morning, a push of air from the southeast began to advance behind a warm front off the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a shallow layer of colder air was in place ahead of the front. Air behind the front is warmer with additional moisture. The exact opposite is true ahead of the front, where the air at the surface is much cooler and drier. What you need to know here is that drier, cooler air has a higher density than air that is warm and moist. In other words, air that has a higher density is essentially "heavier." The "heavier" more dense air will move when it wants to and will not let less dense air push it around. Therefore, instead of pushing the colder air out of the way, the only place for warmer (less dense) air to go, is over the colder air, that stays put at the low levels.

Take a look at this phenomenon from the side. You can clearly see that the warmer air rises over the colder, more dense air. As air rises, it tends to cool, become saturated and generates cloud cover. In our situation, the depth of cold air is so shallow, that precipitation remained light in the form of drizzle and showers. This also answers why its been so chilly today because the cold air did not want to move. However, this type of event is quite tricky to track, especially on doppler radar. Satellite pictures are perfect, but not so much when the radar is superimposed on top. 
 
The picture on the right displays what Max Storm saw this afternoon. Plenty of clouds, but radar echos are not returning, illustrating any precipitation. As noted earlier in this blog entry, our event is shallow. Cloud cover is close to the ground, and therefore precipitation that forms and falls is close to the ground as well. When an event sets up like this, it is almost impossible for doppler radars to pick up precipitation. Two key reasons for this is due to how dopplers work. One, you need to factor in that when a beam from the doppler radar goes out to find targets (precipitation, bugs, birds....etc.) the radar beam shoots out at an angle. Plus, the curvature of the Earth comes into play as well. The farther an object is from the radar site, the lower chance that the radar will pick up on it, especially if the target is close to the ground.
 
The illustration on the left should help you understand the two issues with curvature and angle. Note how the radar beam is shot at an angle, but how the Earth's curvature comes into play. A thunderstorm close to the radar has no problem, but the storm farther away from the radar cannot be picked up. Therefore, the best way to know about any shallow precipitation are from first hand accounts, weather watchers and official weather reporting sites, such as airports. Nonetheless, the doppler radar is one of the best tools that a meteorologist has. Sometimes, we need to do an little extra digging to understand what exactly is going on.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.


Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Christmas Tornadoes

The National Weather Service completed their survey of the tornado damage in Houston County from the Christmas Day storms. They found one as a minimal EF-0 tornado, but the second a powerful EF-3. The following is an illustration of the location of the twisters, plus the assessment from the National Weather Service.


...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/15/12 TORNADO EVENT...

.SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY TORNADO # 1...

RATING:                 EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    150 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  7.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   300 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             DEC 25 2012
START TIME:             9:25 AM CST
START LOCATION:         5 WSW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX
START LAT/LON:          31.1674/ -95.3132

END DATE:               DEC 25 2012
END TIME:               9:35 AM CST
END LOCATION:           2 N PENNINGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
END_LAT/LON:            31.2290 -92.2356

SURVEY SUMMARY: WORST OF THE DAMAGE WAS ALONG HIGHWAY 287 A MILE
NORTH OF PENNINGTON WHERE A FEED STORE AND RESTAURANT WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH DEBRIS SCATTERED IN FIELD TO THE EAST.
WITNESSES OBSERVED A WIDE DARK CLOUD MOVING ACROSS THE PATH
SCATTERING DEBRIS. SEVERAL HOMES AND TRAILERS WERE SEVERELY
DAMAGED ALONG THE PATH...MOSTLY EF-1 AND EF-2 DAMAGE...BUT
THERE WERE NO SERIOUS INJURIES.

.TORNADO # 2...

START DATE:             DEC 25 2012
START TIME:             9:40 AM CST
START LOCATION:         1 NNW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX

END DATE:               DEC 25 2012
END TIME:               9:41 AM CST
END LOCATION:           1 NNW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    75 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   30 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0



BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OBSERVED BY POLICE OFFICER NEAR SCENE OF
EARLIER TOUCHDOWN ALONG ROUTE 287. SOME DEBRIS LOFTED BUT
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH*

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Christmas Severe Weather Breakdown

Could you believe it, but Christmas is here!!!! Santa has already been working hard this Christmas Eve delivering presents to many all across the world and eventually the big guy in the bright red suit will make and appearance here. Rudolph will have no trouble guiding good ole St Nick though the weather in the Brazos Valley. However, once we turn the calendar to Christmas Day, our potential for turbulent weather goes up and some of these storms will reach severe levels.

As of this evening, the main engine of low pressure that will drive these storms continues to sit over the Colorado Rockies. Despite the length of distance this low needs to make in order to get here, its a fairly quick mover. It will be such a swift mover that we will begin to feel some effects around 3am tomorrow (Christmas Day) morning. Additionally, note how the center of low pressure is attached to a warm front. In fact, this was the cold front that moved though our area last night. Now, its going to lift back north as a warm front that will be one of the key triggers to firing off strong to severe thunderstorms.

Before we get into the nitty gritty, the Storm Prediciton Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma believes that there is a heightened potential for severe weather here overnight. Therefore, our entire viewing area has a "slight risk" of severe weather overnight. Basically, the SPC uses this terminology to give awareness that the weather for a certain area has the potential to be rough. Not only will the Brazos Valley feel the effects, but the severe threat extends in to Louisiana, Mississippi, and even Alabama too.

Since we have the ground work laid out for you, lets talk about the specifics in terms of timing and impacts. Now, the center of low pressure currently over the Rockies will slide down into central Texas overnight. At the same time, a warm front that is currently to our south will begin to lift north. Furthermore, instability will take place and thunderstorms will initiate.


This first step will occur between 3am-6am early Christmas Day. Thunderstorms that breakout in this timing window will be isolated, but are not limited to producing strong gust winds, heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning. Several of these storms will carry severe characteristics, but it wont be widespread.

Here is a look at how one computer model illustrates the early thunderstorm activity.



Here is the kicker, after 6am, the warm front will completely pass though the Brazos Valley and heighten the potential for damaging storms from 6am - 10am. If this occurs, we will be in an area between the warm and cold front, known as the "warm sector". Not only does this zone create stronger storms, but the potential for tornadic development. Additionally, a line will develop ahead of the cold front that could generate winds above 60mph at times.

 
 

Again, if this occurs, our threat for tornadoes goes up, but is not guaranteed. However, if the warm front stays to our south, thunderstorms will still be strong, but the threat for tornadoes shrinks significantly. Nonetheless, this will be a situation that will be a waiting game to see the exact track of each piece of the puzzle.

In the end, the entire area will receive a fair amount of rainfall, which is much needed.


In some of the stronger storms, a few locations could pick up over 2 inches of rainfall.

So here is the breakdown for you:

Timing: 3am - 10am.

Impact: Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and a potential for isolated tornadoes.

But don't fear, I will make sure to keep you informed on Facebook, Twitter, and on-air if we need to break into programming. KAGS-HD is committed to keep you in the loop before, during and after the storm.

Finally, once the cold front moves passed us, it will turn sharply colder and windier.

Be safe and have a Merry Christmas! Tonight will be a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radios, or download the KAGS-HD Weather app that will alert you if severe weather strikes.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

An Arctic Blast....Then Wintry Weather?

Tis' the season to be jolly with all the major holidays jam packed in a three week period. Also, tis' the season for traveling. If the weather does not cooperate, then there is going to be some trouble. Paying attention to the weather forecast this holiday season will be crutial all across the country. Recently, a dull, tranquil pattern has turned more active with severe thunderstorms, and even blankets of snow. This trend does not seem like its going to stop anytime soon before 2012 comes to a close.

Two storms will take shape over the next week or so and cause travel troubles for many locations. Right now, the first storm will be an easy read, but the second one that comes down the pike could be interesting and tough to grasp at this time.

Presently, a strengthening low-pressure center sits over the Rockies and is prepared to move into the heart of the country with a line of thunderstorms and huge swath of snow. A combination of mid-level energy, surface temperature differences, and mixing a strong jet stream aloft will aid the power of this currently benign storm.

From the latest computer guidance, the track of this storm should take the center of low pressure though southern Colorado, eventually trek into Missouri and towards southern Michigan. Due to ample cold air, areas located to the north of the center will experience wintry weather, while liquid precipitation will fall to the south.


Because there is a good grasp on the certainty of the path and precipitation type with this next news headliner, the National Weather Service has already placed many from the Rockies to the western Great Lakes under Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and even Blizzard Warnings. Each area you see on the image to the left that's  highlighted in color are locations under winter weather alerts. Snow accumulations could top off near a foot for some, but the strongest winds and blizzard conditions will most likely be felt in western Kansas. Winds could whip over 60mph at times, causing whiteout conditions and halting travel.
 
Sure, the winds will increase all over the Brazos Valley tomorrow and Thursday, but we are well south of the cold air that snow will not be our issue. Therefore, a line of thunderstorms will be our main concern and approach around midnight Thursday. Severe weather should not be a concern, but some of these storms will produce gusts near 40mph, brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Once the front moves though, the gate will open up and cold air will unleash from the north. A gusty north wind will shuttle in much colder air for Thursday. Therefore, the 80 degree weather will be wiped out and its replaced with highs in the 50s, and yes overnight lows below the freezing mark. Cooler air will stay in place though Saturday before another big storm approaches.
 
Computer models are hinting on another, more powerful storm to drop into the southern Rockies and cut across Texas next week, just after Christmas. Its still way too early to call, but it will be interesting to watch because there is the potential for severe thunderstorms and even snow in parts of Texas. If this pans out, there could potentially be huge problems travelling on the roads and though the air. I will keep you posted, but remember, this is still several days out and the forecast can change. The image to the right is just one models solution to the onset of precipitation with the potential next event. Snow Texas does happen, but not often, especially around Dallas and Waco.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 
 

Friday, December 14, 2012

First December Tornado Near Amarillo

According to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, TX this evening was one for the history books. A strong line of thunderstorms rolled though the Texas Panhandle with reports of wind gusts close to 80mph at times along with blinding rainfall. Additionally there were a couple of reports of tornadoes sighted on the ground.

The first report was around 4:15PM CST with a large tornado on the ground just outside of Amarillo with the official listing 3 miles to the northeast of Washburn, TX. The following photo was taken and posted by the National Weather Service on Twitter.

 

According to the report, this tornado lasted only 5 minutes.

Farther in time, another sighting was reported around 4:55PM CST about 5 miles south-southeast of Clarendon, TX. This particular twister caused damage and destroyed a barn in its path, plus pipes were lifted off the ground and swirled in the air.

At the moment, it seems as if there were two different tornadoes from this event, and the National Weather Service will survey the damage and come out with the official count and rating as soon as possible.

What boggled the mind about this event come from the fact that this is the first ever report of a tornado in December for the Amarillo forecast area. It proves that severe weather can occur at any time of the year as long as the correct ingredients are in play.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

"Potentially Hazardous Asteroid" Passes Near Earth


An asteroid known as 4179 Toutatis will be passing relatively close to Earth this afternoon. Due to a pass of 3.7 million miles from Earth, 4179 Toutatis is classified as a "potentially hazardous asteroid." Despite a nearly 0% chance of this asteroid colliding with Earth, this is something that NASA will keep an eye on.

Toutatis is a 3 mile wide flying piece of rock and ice moving though space, which happens to be about half the size of the asteroid that struck Earth 65 million years ago that killed off the dinosaurs. Additionally, this is not the only time we have been greeted by Toutatis. Back in 2004, Toutatis zipped by Earth with an approximate distance of 1 million miles. Plus, Toutatis will likely come close to our orbit once every 4 years.

Again, this is nothing that we need to be concerned about, but something to watch. NASA predicts that Earth should not even come close to a collision over the next 600 years. But, its always good to keep an eye on the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Fog Can Create Power Outages


Fog is one of Mother Nature's gental phenomenon. Sure it lowers visibility, slowing down travel, but thats about it. However, there was a bizzar encounter this morning as power outages were reported in several counties in central Texas. Widespread power outages were reported in Bell, McLennan, Falls and Hill counties as 60 power poles caught fire. This all happened due to fog as visibilities were below 1 mile and in some cases below 1/8 of a mile.

Following a conversation with the Fort Worth National Weather Service office, their insight was quite amazing. In order for this to occur, there are two main ingredients. One, the obvisous, thick widespread fog. Two, a drought striken area.

During a prolonged drought, small bits of dirt and dust collect on power lines and power poles. As fog rolls in, tiny water droppletts attach to the dirt and dust. As this occurs, the dry dirt turns to a pasty mud. Mud acts as a conductor and allows electricity that flows from the wires to the poles, which in turn, over heats the power poles and sparks fires.

So yes, fog can create destruction, but this is a rare event. Back in 2011 Corpus Christi had widespread outages due to fog, and the same happened to Austin in 2009.

What a wild world of weather we live in.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Colder Air Coming Down The Pike

For a change, it was quite welcoming to hear the pitter patter of rain and the percussion of thunder. Parts of the Brazos Valley are in a severe drought with barely 0.50" of rainfall accumulation since October 17th. We need more, and its always good to see liquid gold in moderation. Too much in too little time could cause problems. But an rain is good rain around these parts.

Nonetheless, the extreme December heat has been wiped away via a cold front that delivered a small heap of rain this morning. This past weekend, there were several locations in Robertson County that clocked temperatures near 90°! As drier, cooler air filters in, expect Wednesday to be a gem with a mostly sunny sky, morning lows in the upper 40s and daytime highs in the low 70s. However, the heat and humidity will build again later this week and towards the weekend.

Yet, there will be a huge temperature swing on the horizon.


The key reason why today's front will not give us the polar plunge is due to its origins. We call these "Pacific Fronts" that originate off the.....(you guessed it) Pacific Ocean. Typically, these fronts will cool us down marginally and supply a quick shot of drier air. Note the temperatures behind the front into the Rockies and Pacific Northwest really are not that cold for this time of year. On the other hand, there will be another storm that will drill in air from Canada over the coming weekend.


The air way up into Canada has been hiding for a while, but now its going to come out and play a game of peek-a-boo. Sure enough we will say, "I see you." We will not even come close to see temperatures in the 10s and 0s here, but when this pool of polar air dives south it will moderate the air that we currently have in place.

Computer information shows that we will get hit with the cold stuff in a period between Sunday and Monday as the jet stream will move our way.


When you see a dip in the jet stream like that, you should be aware that changes are coming. Not only will this cool the Brazos Valley off in a big way, but also well needed rainfall will accompany the onset of the new air mass.

At the moment, what I can foresee are high temperatures by next week could hold in the 50s with a few evenings in the 30s/20s.

I will keep you updated with the latest.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.